The Challenge: Burnout and Absence Surges

HR leaders are under pressure to protect employee wellbeing while keeping operations stable. Yet burnout and sickness absence surges often seem to come out of nowhere: a department suddenly reports high sick leave, critical roles are offline at the same time, and managers complain that their teams are overwhelmed. By the time this shows up in monthly HR reports, the damage to workload, morale and customer delivery is already done.

Traditional approaches rely on lagging indicators and manual observation. HR business partners scan absence reports, listen to managers, and maybe run an annual engagement survey. But burnout risk today is encoded in high-frequency operational data: overtime patterns, shift swaps, weekend work, ticket volumes to HR and IT, calendar overload, and unstructured comments in feedback tools. No human can reliably connect these dots across thousands of employees in real time with spreadsheets and dashboards alone.

When organisations fail to anticipate burnout and absence surges, the business impact is substantial. Overtime and temporary staffing costs spike, service levels drop, and critical projects slow down. Overloaded teams see rising error rates and safety incidents. High performers disengage or leave, forcing expensive replacement hiring. HR gets stuck in a reactive loop of firefighting symptoms instead of shaping a sustainable workforce strategy. Over time, this is a serious competitive disadvantage in tight labour markets.

The challenge is real, but it is solvable. With modern AI workforce risk analytics, HR can move from backward-looking reporting to forward-looking prevention. At Reruption, we’ve seen how combining operational data with AI models like Gemini gives HR a new early-warning system for burnout risk. In the sections below, you’ll find concrete guidance on how to set this up, what to watch out for, and how to turn insights into practical interventions instead of just more dashboards.

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Our Assessment

A strategic assessment of the challenge and high-level tips how to tackle it.

At Reruption, we treat Gemini for burnout prediction not as another report, but as a strategic capability: an always-on sensor for workforce risk that plugs into your existing HRIS, scheduling and ticketing landscape. Based on our hands-on work building AI solutions inside complex organisations, we know that the value doesn’t come from fancy models alone, but from how you connect Gemini to real HR decisions, governance and change management.

Frame Burnout Prediction as a Risk Management Capability, Not a Gadget

Before you connect any data to Gemini, align leadership on the purpose: this is about workforce risk management, not employee surveillance or a one-off analytics project. Position the initiative in the same category as financial or safety risk controls, with a clear mandate to protect people and business continuity.

In practice, that means defining what "success" looks like in risk terms: fewer surprise absence surges, reduced overtime hotspots, and earlier detection of at-risk teams. This framing will guide how you configure Gemini, which signals you prioritise, and how you address legitimate employee concerns about privacy and fairness.

Start with Teams and Patterns, Not Individual Predictions

For HR, the strategic value of AI-powered burnout analytics is in spotting systemic issues, not labelling individual employees as "at risk". Begin by using Gemini to identify high-risk teams, functions or locations based on patterns in overtime, shift volatility, ticket volume and text feedback.

This team-level focus lowers ethical and legal risk, avoids creating a "scoring" culture, and still gives you powerful insight into where to intervene. Later, you can carefully introduce more granular views with strict governance if your organisation and works councils are ready for it.

Design Cross-Functional Ownership from Day One

Predictive workforce analytics only work if someone owns the response. Don’t leave Gemini entirely in HR or in IT. Set up a cross-functional group that includes HR, operations, and at least one data/IT representative who understands your HRIS and scheduling tools.

This group should define thresholds (e.g. when an emerging pattern counts as a risk), response playbooks (what managers are expected to do), and escalation paths. Without this shared ownership, AI signals will sit in a dashboard while burnout continues unchecked.

Prioritise Data Readiness over Model Sophistication

Many organisations overestimate model complexity and underestimate data basics. For Gemini burnout prediction, the key strategic step is getting reliable, well-structured feeds from HRIS, time & attendance, scheduling, and ticketing systems – even if that starts as weekly batch exports.

Focus first on a clean, minimal dataset that consistently captures workloads, shift changes, absence reasons and support requests. You can iteratively add more sources (engagement surveys, feedback comments, calendar data) later. A simple but stable foundation beats a complex but fragile pipeline.

Plan for Ethics, Transparency and Works Council Engagement

Using AI to anticipate burnout and absence surges touches on sensitive employee data. Strategically, you must build trust and involve your works council or employee representatives early. Make it clear that the goal is healthier workloads, not monitoring individual behaviour.

Agree on what level of aggregation is used, how long data is stored, and how insights are communicated to managers. Prepare transparent explanations of how Gemini is used (and what it does not do). This proactive governance greatly reduces the risk of backlash and increases adoption of the new early-warning system.

Used thoughtfully, Gemini can become HR’s real-time radar for burnout and absence surges – surfacing risk hotspots early enough that you can rebalance workloads, adjust staffing and support managers before people hit a breaking point. The real challenge is not the AI model itself, but how you frame the initiative, prepare your data, and embed the insights into HR and operational decisions.

Reruption specialises in building exactly these kinds of AI capabilities inside organisations – from rapid Gemini prototypes on top of your HRIS to production-ready workforce risk analytics with clear governance. If you’re exploring how to move from reactive reporting to predictive prevention, we’re happy to discuss what a pragmatic, low-friction first step could look like for your HR team.

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Real-World Case Studies

From Healthcare to Healthcare: Learn how companies successfully use Gemini.

Kaiser Permanente

Healthcare

In hospital settings, adult patients on general wards often experience clinical deterioration without adequate warning, leading to emergency transfers to intensive care, increased mortality, and preventable readmissions. Kaiser Permanente Northern California faced this issue across its network, where subtle changes in vital signs and lab results went unnoticed amid high patient volumes and busy clinician workflows. This resulted in elevated adverse outcomes, including higher-than-necessary death rates and 30-day readmissions . Traditional early warning scores like MEWS (Modified Early Warning Score) were limited by manual scoring and poor predictive accuracy for deterioration within 12 hours, failing to leverage the full potential of electronic health record (EHR) data. The challenge was compounded by alert fatigue from less precise systems and the need for a scalable solution across 21 hospitals serving millions .

Lösung

Kaiser Permanente developed the Advance Alert Monitor (AAM), an AI-powered early warning system using predictive analytics to analyze real-time EHR data—including vital signs, labs, and demographics—to identify patients at high risk of deterioration within the next 12 hours. The model generates a risk score and automated alerts integrated into clinicians' workflows, prompting timely interventions like physician reviews or rapid response teams . Implemented since 2013 in Northern California, AAM employs machine learning algorithms trained on historical data to outperform traditional scores, with explainable predictions to build clinician trust. It was rolled out hospital-wide, addressing integration challenges through Epic EHR compatibility and clinician training to minimize fatigue .

Ergebnisse

  • 16% lower mortality rate in AAM intervention cohort
  • 500+ deaths prevented annually across network
  • 10% reduction in 30-day readmissions
  • Identifies deterioration risk within 12 hours with high reliability
  • Deployed in 21 Northern California hospitals
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Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

Banking

As Australia's largest bank, CBA faced escalating scam and fraud threats, with customers suffering significant financial losses. Scammers exploited rapid digital payments like PayID, where mismatched payee names led to irreversible transfers. Traditional detection lagged behind sophisticated attacks, resulting in high customer harm and regulatory pressure. Simultaneously, contact centers were overwhelmed, handling millions of inquiries on fraud alerts and transactions. This led to long wait times, increased operational costs, and strained resources. CBA needed proactive, scalable AI to intervene in real-time while reducing reliance on human agents.

Lösung

CBA deployed a hybrid AI stack blending machine learning for anomaly detection and generative AI for personalized warnings. NameCheck verifies payee names against PayID in real-time, alerting users to mismatches. CallerCheck authenticates inbound calls, blocking impersonation scams. Partnering with H2O.ai, CBA implemented GenAI-driven predictive models for scam intelligence. An AI virtual assistant in the CommBank app handles routine queries, generates natural responses, and escalates complex issues. Integration with Apate.ai provides near real-time scam intel, enhancing proactive blocking across channels.

Ergebnisse

  • 70% reduction in scam losses
  • 50% cut in customer fraud losses by 2024
  • 30% drop in fraud cases via proactive warnings
  • 40% reduction in contact center wait times
  • 95%+ accuracy in NameCheck payee matching
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Nubank

Fintech

Nubank, Latin America's largest digital bank serving 114 million customers across Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, faced immense pressure to scale customer support amid explosive growth. Traditional systems struggled with high-volume Tier-1 inquiries, leading to longer wait times and inconsistent personalization, while fraud detection required real-time analysis of massive transaction data from over 100 million users. Balancing fee-free services, personalized experiences, and robust security was critical in a competitive fintech landscape plagued by sophisticated scams like spoofing and false central fraud. Internally, call centers and support teams needed tools to handle complex queries efficiently without compromising quality. Pre-AI, response times were bottlenecks, and manual fraud checks were resource-intensive, risking customer trust and regulatory compliance in dynamic LatAm markets.

Lösung

Nubank integrated OpenAI GPT-4 models into its ecosystem for a generative AI chat assistant, call center copilot, and advanced fraud detection combining NLP and computer vision. The chat assistant autonomously resolves Tier-1 issues, while the copilot aids human agents with real-time insights. For fraud, foundation model-based ML analyzes transaction patterns at scale. Implementation involved a phased approach: piloting GPT-4 for support in 2024, expanding to internal tools by early 2025, and enhancing fraud systems with multimodal AI. This AI-first strategy, rooted in machine learning, enabled seamless personalization and efficiency gains across operations.

Ergebnisse

  • 55% of Tier-1 support queries handled autonomously by AI
  • 70% reduction in chat response times
  • 5,000+ employees using internal AI tools by 2025
  • 114 million customers benefiting from personalized AI service
  • Real-time fraud detection for 100M+ transaction analyses
  • Significant boost in operational efficiency for call centers
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Klarna

Fintech

Klarna, a leading fintech BNPL provider, faced enormous pressure from millions of customer service inquiries across multiple languages for its 150 million users worldwide. Queries spanned complex fintech issues like refunds, returns, order tracking, and payments, requiring high accuracy, regulatory compliance, and 24/7 availability. Traditional human agents couldn't scale efficiently, leading to long wait times averaging 11 minutes per resolution and rising costs. Additionally, providing personalized shopping advice at scale was challenging, as customers expected conversational, context-aware guidance across retail partners. Multilingual support was critical in markets like US, Europe, and beyond, but hiring multilingual agents was costly and slow. This bottleneck hindered growth and customer satisfaction in a competitive BNPL sector.

Lösung

Klarna partnered with OpenAI to deploy a generative AI chatbot powered by GPT-4, customized as a multilingual customer service assistant. The bot handles refunds, returns, order issues, and acts as a conversational shopping advisor, integrated seamlessly into Klarna's app and website. Key innovations included fine-tuning on Klarna's data, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) for real-time policy access, and safeguards for fintech compliance. It supports dozens of languages, escalating complex cases to humans while learning from interactions. This AI-native approach enabled rapid scaling without proportional headcount growth.

Ergebnisse

  • 2/3 of all customer service chats handled by AI
  • 2.3 million conversations in first month alone
  • Resolution time: 11 minutes → 2 minutes (82% reduction)
  • CSAT: 4.4/5 (AI) vs. 4.2/5 (humans)
  • $40 million annual cost savings
  • Equivalent to 700 full-time human agents
  • 80%+ queries resolved without human intervention
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NYU Langone Health

Healthcare

NYU Langone Health, a leading academic medical center, faced significant hurdles in leveraging the vast amounts of unstructured clinical notes generated daily across its network. Traditional clinical predictive models relied heavily on structured data like lab results and vitals, but these required complex ETL processes that were time-consuming and limited in scope. Unstructured notes, rich with nuanced physician insights, were underutilized due to challenges in natural language processing, hindering accurate predictions of critical outcomes such as in-hospital mortality, length of stay (LOS), readmissions, and operational events like insurance denials. Clinicians needed real-time, scalable tools to identify at-risk patients early, but existing models struggled with the volume and variability of EHR data—over 4 million notes spanning a decade. This gap led to reactive care, increased costs, and suboptimal patient outcomes, prompting the need for an innovative approach to transform raw text into actionable foresight.

Lösung

To address these challenges, NYU Langone's Division of Applied AI Technologies at the Center for Healthcare Innovation and Delivery Science developed NYUTron, a proprietary large language model (LLM) specifically trained on internal clinical notes. Unlike off-the-shelf models, NYUTron was fine-tuned on unstructured EHR text from millions of encounters, enabling it to serve as an all-purpose prediction engine for diverse tasks. The solution involved pre-training a 13-billion-parameter LLM on over 10 years of de-identified notes (approximately 4.8 million inpatient notes), followed by task-specific fine-tuning. This allowed seamless integration into clinical workflows, automating risk flagging directly from physician documentation without manual data structuring. Collaborative efforts, including AI 'Prompt-a-Thons,' accelerated adoption by engaging clinicians in model refinement.

Ergebnisse

  • AUROC: 0.961 for 48-hour mortality prediction (vs. 0.938 benchmark)
  • 92% accuracy in identifying high-risk patients from notes
  • LOS prediction AUROC: 0.891 (5.6% improvement over prior models)
  • Readmission prediction: AUROC 0.812, outperforming clinicians in some tasks
  • Operational predictions (e.g., insurance denial): AUROC up to 0.85
  • 24 clinical tasks with superior performance across mortality, LOS, and comorbidities
Read case study →

Best Practices

Successful implementations follow proven patterns. Have a look at our tactical advice to get started.

Connect Gemini to a Minimal but High-Value Data Set

To detect burnout and absence surges, start by wiring Gemini into 3–4 core systems: your HRIS (for headcount, roles, tenure), time & attendance/scheduling (for hours, overtime, shift patterns), and ticketing or support tools (for HR, IT or service desk requests). If available, add engagement survey scores or pulse check data.

Set up a simple integration path first: for a PoC, weekly CSV exports to a secure storage location that Gemini can access are often enough. Define a consistent schema with team identifiers, dates, and key metrics (e.g. hours worked, shift changes, sick days, ticket counts). The goal is to give Gemini a time series view per team so it can learn normal vs. abnormal patterns.

Build a Gemini Prompt Template to Flag Risk Hotspots

Once your data is accessible, configure a recurring Gemini analysis that turns raw metrics into human-readable workforce risk insights for HR. Use structured prompts that tell Gemini exactly how to evaluate recent weeks vs. historical baselines and what to flag for review.

System role:
You are an HR workforce risk assistant. You analyse team-level data to detect early signs of burnout and upcoming absence surges.

User prompt:
You receive weekly aggregated data per team:
- average hours worked
- overtime hours
- weekend/late-night shifts
- shift swaps / last-minute changes
- sick days and absence reasons
- ticket volume to HR/IT
- engagement scores or comment sentiment (if available)

Tasks:
1. Compare the last 4 weeks to the previous 12-week baseline.
2. Identify teams with concerning patterns, such as:
   - sustained overtime above 15%
   - >20% increase in sick days
   - strong rise in shift changes or ticket volume
   - worsening sentiment in free-text feedback
3. For each at-risk team, produce a short summary including:
   - risk level (low/medium/high)
   - main signals contributing to the risk
   - suggested follow-up actions for HRBP and line manager.
4. Highlight the top 5 teams requiring immediate attention.

Schedule this analysis weekly and deliver the output directly into HRBP workspaces (e.g. via email, collaboration tools or your HR analytics portal) so it becomes part of their regular rhythm.

Use Gemini to Analyse Unstructured Feedback and Tickets

Burnout risk often appears first in unstructured data: free-text comments in engagement surveys, HR tickets about workload or conflicts, or even coaching notes. Use Gemini’s multimodal and NLP capabilities to turn this noise into structured signals.

System role:
You are an HR text analytics assistant. You summarise and classify employee feedback to support burnout risk detection.

User prompt:
Here are anonymised employee comments and HR ticket descriptions from the last 4 weeks.

Tasks:
1. Group them by dominant topic (e.g. workload, processes, leadership, working hours, tools).
2. For each topic, assess the sentiment (positive/neutral/negative).
3. Identify any comments that explicitly or implicitly mention stress, exhaustion, unfair workload, or thoughts of leaving.
4. Produce a team-level overview:
   - main topics per team
   - trend vs. last month (if previous summary is provided)
   - red-flag quotes (fully anonymised) illustrating risk.

Feed these structured outputs back into your main risk view. This lets you combine quantitative metrics (hours, absences) with qualitative context, improving the accuracy of your burnout predictions.

Create Standardised HR Playbooks Based on Gemini Alerts

Insights are only useful if they trigger clear action. For each risk level Gemini can assign (e.g. low/medium/high), define a concrete HR playbook specifying who does what within which timeline. Document these steps and make them accessible alongside the weekly risk report.

For example, a "high" risk alert for a team might trigger: a joint HRBP–manager meeting within 5 days, a workload review using time data, a short anonymous pulse survey powered by Gemini to collect fresh qualitative feedback, and an agreed set of short-term relief actions (e.g. temporary headcount, reprioritised projects). Make Gemini part of this playbook by generating manager-ready summaries:

Prompt snippet for manager briefings:
"Based on the following risk summary, draft a 1-page briefing for the line manager.
Explain the situation in simple language, avoid technical jargon, and propose 3 concrete steps they can take in the next 2 weeks to reduce burnout risk in their team."

This closes the loop from prediction to intervention and ensures HR doesn’t just consume analytics passively.

Prototype Dashboards with Gemini Before Hard-Coding BI Reports

Instead of immediately investing in complex BI dashboards, use Gemini to quickly prototype different ways of visualising and narrating workforce risk hotspots. Ask Gemini to suggest chart types, thresholds and layouts that would be most helpful for HR and operations.

Prompt example:
"Here is our current weekly risk summary by team (data table attached).
1) Suggest 3 dashboard layouts that would help HR quickly spot burnout and absence risks.
2) For each layout, describe which charts, filters and thresholds to use.
3) Highlight which KPIs should appear on the first screen for HR, and which are secondary details."

Test these narrative and visual concepts with a few HRBPs and managers before committing them into your analytics stack. This reduces rework and ensures that when you do build permanent dashboards, they reflect real user needs.

Continuously Tune Thresholds and Validate Against Real Outcomes

For Gemini-based burnout prediction to stay useful, you need a feedback loop. Every quarter, compare Gemini’s risk classifications with actual outcomes: did flagged teams experience more sick leave, attrition or performance drops? Where did the model over- or under-react?

Use Gemini itself to support this tuning process:

Prompt example:
"Here are 6 months of weekly team-level risk scores from Gemini, plus actual outcomes: sick days, voluntary exits, and overtime.
1) Analyse where the risk model overestimated or underestimated risk.
2) Suggest new thresholds or additional signals that could improve precision.
3) Propose a simple set of rules for updating our risk classification logic."

Document adjustments and communicate them to stakeholders so they understand that the system learns and improves over time rather than being a static "black box".

Implemented step by step, these practices can realistically enable HR to spot emerging burnout and absence surges 2–4 weeks earlier, reduce overtime hotspots in critical teams by 10–20%, and cut the number of "surprise" high-absence incidents. The exact numbers will vary by organisation, but with a focused Gemini setup and clear playbooks, you should expect a tangible shift from reactive firefighting to proactive, data-driven workforce care.

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Frequently Asked Questions

For meaningful burnout and absence surge prediction, Gemini works best with a mix of operational and HR data, ideally at team level. High-impact sources include:

  • HRIS data: headcount, roles, tenure, organisational structure.
  • Time & attendance / scheduling: hours worked, overtime, weekend/night shifts, shift swaps.
  • Absence data: sick days, absence reasons (in aggregated, privacy-safe form).
  • Ticketing/support systems: volume and topics of HR, IT or service desk requests.
  • Engagement and feedback: survey scores and anonymised free-text comments.

You can start with a minimal subset (HRIS + hours + absences) and extend over time. The key is consistent, well-structured data over several months so Gemini can learn normal patterns and detect anomalies.

A focused Gemini PoC for burnout prediction does not need to be a long project. If you can provide basic HRIS and time/absence exports, an initial prototype that highlights risk hotspots by team is typically feasible in a few weeks.

With Reruption’s AI PoC approach, we aim to deliver a working prototype in the 9.900€ framework within weeks, not months: data mapping, a first Gemini analysis pipeline, weekly risk summaries, and initial HRBP feedback. Deeper integrations, dashboards and process changes come after you’ve seen concrete signals and agreed that the approach works for your organisation.

No. One advantage of Gemini for HR is that you can achieve a lot without a large in-house data science team. You do, however, need access to someone who understands your HRIS and scheduling data structure, plus a technical contact who can help set up secure data access.

HR can own the use case (questions, thresholds, playbooks), while IT or an external partner like Reruption handles the integration and model configuration. Over time, we recommend upskilling selected HR analytics or people analytics staff so they can maintain prompts, validate results and collaborate effectively with IT.

The business case for AI-driven burnout prevention comes from avoiding costly surprises. Typical ROI components include: reduced overtime and temporary staffing costs in critical periods, fewer disrupted projects due to simultaneous absences in key roles, lower attrition in high-risk teams, and better utilisation of HRBP time through targeted interventions.

While exact figures depend on your context, organisations often see that preventing just a handful of major burnout-related absences or resignations already covers the initial investment. A structured PoC phase lets you quantify early impact by comparing overtime, absences and attrition in flagged vs. non-flagged teams over a few months.

Reruption combines AI engineering with a Co-Preneur mindset: we don’t just advise, we help you build a working Gemini-based workforce risk solution inside your organisation. Our 9.900€ AI PoC offer is a pragmatic starting point to prove technical feasibility and business value for your specific HR landscape.

Concretely, we help you define the use case, map and connect HRIS/scheduling/ticketing data, design effective Gemini prompts and workflows, and validate outputs with HRBPs. Beyond the PoC, we support you in hardening the solution for production, setting up governance and change management, and embedding the capability in your operating model – acting as a co-founder-like partner until something real ships, not just a slide deck.

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