The Challenge: Burnout and Absence Surges

HR leaders are under pressure to protect employee wellbeing while keeping operations stable. Yet burnout and sickness absence surges often seem to come out of nowhere: a department suddenly reports high sick leave, critical roles are offline at the same time, and managers complain that their teams are overwhelmed. By the time this shows up in monthly HR reports, the damage to workload, morale and customer delivery is already done.

Traditional approaches rely on lagging indicators and manual observation. HR business partners scan absence reports, listen to managers, and maybe run an annual engagement survey. But burnout risk today is encoded in high-frequency operational data: overtime patterns, shift swaps, weekend work, ticket volumes to HR and IT, calendar overload, and unstructured comments in feedback tools. No human can reliably connect these dots across thousands of employees in real time with spreadsheets and dashboards alone.

When organisations fail to anticipate burnout and absence surges, the business impact is substantial. Overtime and temporary staffing costs spike, service levels drop, and critical projects slow down. Overloaded teams see rising error rates and safety incidents. High performers disengage or leave, forcing expensive replacement hiring. HR gets stuck in a reactive loop of firefighting symptoms instead of shaping a sustainable workforce strategy. Over time, this is a serious competitive disadvantage in tight labour markets.

The challenge is real, but it is solvable. With modern AI workforce risk analytics, HR can move from backward-looking reporting to forward-looking prevention. At Reruption, we’ve seen how combining operational data with AI models like Gemini gives HR a new early-warning system for burnout risk. In the sections below, you’ll find concrete guidance on how to set this up, what to watch out for, and how to turn insights into practical interventions instead of just more dashboards.

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Our Assessment

A strategic assessment of the challenge and high-level tips how to tackle it.

At Reruption, we treat Gemini for burnout prediction not as another report, but as a strategic capability: an always-on sensor for workforce risk that plugs into your existing HRIS, scheduling and ticketing landscape. Based on our hands-on work building AI solutions inside complex organisations, we know that the value doesn’t come from fancy models alone, but from how you connect Gemini to real HR decisions, governance and change management.

Frame Burnout Prediction as a Risk Management Capability, Not a Gadget

Before you connect any data to Gemini, align leadership on the purpose: this is about workforce risk management, not employee surveillance or a one-off analytics project. Position the initiative in the same category as financial or safety risk controls, with a clear mandate to protect people and business continuity.

In practice, that means defining what "success" looks like in risk terms: fewer surprise absence surges, reduced overtime hotspots, and earlier detection of at-risk teams. This framing will guide how you configure Gemini, which signals you prioritise, and how you address legitimate employee concerns about privacy and fairness.

Start with Teams and Patterns, Not Individual Predictions

For HR, the strategic value of AI-powered burnout analytics is in spotting systemic issues, not labelling individual employees as "at risk". Begin by using Gemini to identify high-risk teams, functions or locations based on patterns in overtime, shift volatility, ticket volume and text feedback.

This team-level focus lowers ethical and legal risk, avoids creating a "scoring" culture, and still gives you powerful insight into where to intervene. Later, you can carefully introduce more granular views with strict governance if your organisation and works councils are ready for it.

Design Cross-Functional Ownership from Day One

Predictive workforce analytics only work if someone owns the response. Don’t leave Gemini entirely in HR or in IT. Set up a cross-functional group that includes HR, operations, and at least one data/IT representative who understands your HRIS and scheduling tools.

This group should define thresholds (e.g. when an emerging pattern counts as a risk), response playbooks (what managers are expected to do), and escalation paths. Without this shared ownership, AI signals will sit in a dashboard while burnout continues unchecked.

Prioritise Data Readiness over Model Sophistication

Many organisations overestimate model complexity and underestimate data basics. For Gemini burnout prediction, the key strategic step is getting reliable, well-structured feeds from HRIS, time & attendance, scheduling, and ticketing systems – even if that starts as weekly batch exports.

Focus first on a clean, minimal dataset that consistently captures workloads, shift changes, absence reasons and support requests. You can iteratively add more sources (engagement surveys, feedback comments, calendar data) later. A simple but stable foundation beats a complex but fragile pipeline.

Plan for Ethics, Transparency and Works Council Engagement

Using AI to anticipate burnout and absence surges touches on sensitive employee data. Strategically, you must build trust and involve your works council or employee representatives early. Make it clear that the goal is healthier workloads, not monitoring individual behaviour.

Agree on what level of aggregation is used, how long data is stored, and how insights are communicated to managers. Prepare transparent explanations of how Gemini is used (and what it does not do). This proactive governance greatly reduces the risk of backlash and increases adoption of the new early-warning system.

Used thoughtfully, Gemini can become HR’s real-time radar for burnout and absence surges – surfacing risk hotspots early enough that you can rebalance workloads, adjust staffing and support managers before people hit a breaking point. The real challenge is not the AI model itself, but how you frame the initiative, prepare your data, and embed the insights into HR and operational decisions.

Reruption specialises in building exactly these kinds of AI capabilities inside organisations – from rapid Gemini prototypes on top of your HRIS to production-ready workforce risk analytics with clear governance. If you’re exploring how to move from reactive reporting to predictive prevention, we’re happy to discuss what a pragmatic, low-friction first step could look like for your HR team.

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Real-World Case Studies

From Energy to E-commerce: Learn how companies successfully use Gemini.

BP

Energy

BP, a global energy leader in oil, gas, and renewables, grappled with high energy costs during peak periods across its extensive assets. Volatile grid demands and price spikes during high-consumption times strained operations, exacerbating inefficiencies in energy production and consumption. Integrating intermittent renewable sources added forecasting challenges, while traditional management failed to dynamically respond to real-time market signals, leading to substantial financial losses and grid instability risks . Compounding this, BP's diverse portfolio—from offshore platforms to data-heavy exploration—faced data silos and legacy systems ill-equipped for predictive analytics. Peak energy expenses not only eroded margins but hindered the transition to sustainable operations amid rising regulatory pressures for emissions reduction. The company needed a solution to shift loads intelligently and monetize flexibility in energy markets .

Lösung

To tackle these issues, BP acquired Open Energi in 2021, gaining access to its flagship Plato AI platform, which employs machine learning for predictive analytics and real-time optimization. Plato analyzes vast datasets from assets, weather, and grid signals to forecast peaks and automate demand response, shifting non-critical loads to off-peak times while participating in frequency response services . Integrated into BP's operations, the AI enables dynamic containment and flexibility markets, optimizing consumption without disrupting production. Combined with BP's internal AI for exploration and simulation, it provides end-to-end visibility, reducing reliance on fossil fuels during peaks and enhancing renewable integration . This acquisition marked a strategic pivot, blending Open Energi's demand-side expertise with BP's supply-side scale.

Ergebnisse

  • $10 million in annual energy savings
  • 80+ MW of energy assets under flexible management
  • Strongest oil exploration performance in years via AI
  • Material boost in electricity demand optimization
  • Reduced peak grid costs through dynamic response
  • Enhanced asset efficiency across oil, gas, renewables
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Visa

Payments

The payments industry faced a surge in online fraud, particularly enumeration attacks where threat actors use automated scripts and botnets to test stolen card details at scale. These attacks exploit vulnerabilities in card-not-present transactions, causing $1.1 billion in annual fraud losses globally and significant operational expenses for issuers. Visa needed real-time detection to combat this without generating high false positives that block legitimate customers, especially amid rising e-commerce volumes like Cyber Monday spikes. Traditional fraud systems struggled with the speed and sophistication of these attacks, amplified by AI-driven bots. Visa's challenge was to analyze vast transaction data in milliseconds, identifying anomalous patterns while maintaining seamless user experiences. This required advanced AI and machine learning to predict and score risks accurately.

Lösung

Visa developed the Visa Account Attack Intelligence (VAAI) Score, a generative AI-powered tool that scores the likelihood of enumeration attacks in real-time for card-not-present transactions. By leveraging generative AI components alongside machine learning models, VAAI detects sophisticated patterns from botnets and scripts that evade legacy rules-based systems. Integrated into Visa's broader AI-driven fraud ecosystem, including Identity Behavior Analysis, the solution enhances risk scoring with behavioral insights. Rolled out first to U.S. issuers in 2024, it reduces both fraud and false declines, optimizing operations. This approach allows issuers to proactively mitigate threats at unprecedented scale.

Ergebnisse

  • $40 billion in fraud prevented (Oct 2022-Sep 2023)
  • Nearly 2x increase YoY in fraud prevention
  • $1.1 billion annual global losses from enumeration attacks targeted
  • 85% more fraudulent transactions blocked on Cyber Monday 2024 YoY
  • Handled 200% spike in fraud attempts without service disruption
  • Enhanced risk scoring accuracy via ML and Identity Behavior Analysis
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NatWest

Banking

NatWest Group, a leading UK bank serving over 19 million customers, grappled with escalating demands for digital customer service. Traditional systems like the original Cora chatbot handled routine queries effectively but struggled with complex, nuanced interactions, often escalating 80-90% of cases to human agents. This led to delays, higher operational costs, and risks to customer satisfaction amid rising expectations for instant, personalized support . Simultaneously, the surge in financial fraud posed a critical threat, requiring seamless fraud reporting and detection within chat interfaces without compromising security or user trust. Regulatory compliance, data privacy under UK GDPR, and ethical AI deployment added layers of complexity, as the bank aimed to scale support while minimizing errors in high-stakes banking scenarios . Balancing innovation with reliability was paramount; poor AI performance could erode trust in a sector where customer satisfaction directly impacts retention and revenue .

Lösung

Cora+, launched in June 2024, marked NatWest's first major upgrade using generative AI to enable proactive, intuitive responses for complex queries, reducing escalations and enhancing self-service . This built on Cora's established platform, which already managed millions of interactions monthly. In a pioneering move, NatWest partnered with OpenAI in March 2025—becoming the first UK-headquartered bank to do so—integrating LLMs into both customer-facing Cora and internal tool Ask Archie. This allowed natural language processing for fraud reports, personalized advice, and process simplification while embedding safeguards for compliance and bias mitigation . The approach emphasized ethical AI, with rigorous testing, human oversight, and continuous monitoring to ensure safe, accurate interactions in fraud detection and service delivery .

Ergebnisse

  • 150% increase in Cora customer satisfaction scores (2024)
  • Proactive resolution of complex queries without human intervention
  • First UK bank OpenAI partnership, accelerating AI adoption
  • Enhanced fraud detection via real-time chat analysis
  • Millions of monthly interactions handled autonomously
  • Significant reduction in agent escalation rates
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Associated Press (AP)

News Media

In the mid-2010s, the Associated Press (AP) faced significant constraints in its business newsroom due to limited manual resources. With only a handful of journalists dedicated to earnings coverage, AP could produce just around 300 quarterly earnings reports per quarter, primarily focusing on major S&P 500 companies. This manual process was labor-intensive: reporters had to extract data from financial filings, analyze key metrics like revenue, profits, and growth rates, and craft concise narratives under tight deadlines. As the number of publicly traded companies grew, AP struggled to cover smaller firms, leaving vast amounts of market-relevant information unreported. This limitation not only reduced AP's comprehensive market coverage but also tied up journalists on rote tasks, preventing them from pursuing investigative stories or deeper analysis. The pressure of quarterly earnings seasons amplified these issues, with deadlines coinciding across thousands of companies, making scalable reporting impossible without innovation.

Lösung

To address this, AP partnered with Automated Insights in 2014, implementing their Wordsmith NLG platform. Wordsmith uses templated algorithms to transform structured financial data—such as earnings per share, revenue figures, and year-over-year changes—into readable, journalistic prose. Reporters input verified data from sources like Zacks Investment Research, and the AI generates draft stories in seconds, which humans then lightly edit for accuracy and style. The solution involved creating custom NLG templates tailored to AP's style, ensuring stories sounded human-written while adhering to journalistic standards. This hybrid approach—AI for volume, humans for oversight—overcame quality concerns. By 2015, AP announced it would automate the majority of U.S. corporate earnings stories, scaling coverage dramatically without proportional staff increases.

Ergebnisse

  • 14x increase in quarterly earnings stories: 300 to 4,200
  • Coverage expanded to 4,000+ U.S. public companies per quarter
  • Equivalent to freeing time of 20 full-time reporters
  • Stories published in seconds vs. hours manually
  • Zero reported errors in automated stories post-implementation
  • Sustained use expanded to sports, weather, and lottery reports
Read case study →

American Eagle Outfitters

Apparel Retail

In the competitive apparel retail landscape, American Eagle Outfitters faced significant hurdles in fitting rooms, where customers crave styling advice, accurate sizing, and complementary item suggestions without waiting for overtaxed associates . Peak-hour staff shortages often resulted in frustrated shoppers abandoning carts, low try-on rates, and missed conversion opportunities, as traditional in-store experiences lagged behind personalized e-commerce . Early efforts like beacon technology in 2014 doubled fitting room entry odds but lacked depth in real-time personalization . Compounding this, data silos between online and offline hindered unified customer insights, making it tough to match items to individual style preferences, body types, or even skin tones dynamically. American Eagle needed a scalable solution to boost engagement and loyalty in flagship stores while experimenting with AI for broader impact .

Lösung

American Eagle partnered with Aila Technologies to deploy interactive fitting room kiosks powered by computer vision and machine learning, rolled out in 2019 at flagship locations in Boston, Las Vegas, and San Francisco . Customers scan garments via iOS devices, triggering CV algorithms to identify items and ML models—trained on purchase history and Google Cloud data—to suggest optimal sizes, colors, and outfit complements tailored to inferred style and preferences . Integrated with Google Cloud's ML capabilities, the system enables real-time recommendations, associate alerts for assistance, and seamless inventory checks, evolving from beacon lures to a full smart assistant . This experimental approach, championed by CMO Craig Brommers, fosters an AI culture for personalization at scale .

Ergebnisse

  • Double-digit conversion gains from AI personalization
  • 11% comparable sales growth for Aerie brand Q3 2025
  • 4% overall comparable sales increase Q3 2025
  • 29% EPS growth to $0.53 Q3 2025
  • Doubled fitting room try-on odds via early tech
  • Record Q3 revenue of $1.36B
Read case study →

Best Practices

Successful implementations follow proven patterns. Have a look at our tactical advice to get started.

Connect Gemini to a Minimal but High-Value Data Set

To detect burnout and absence surges, start by wiring Gemini into 3–4 core systems: your HRIS (for headcount, roles, tenure), time & attendance/scheduling (for hours, overtime, shift patterns), and ticketing or support tools (for HR, IT or service desk requests). If available, add engagement survey scores or pulse check data.

Set up a simple integration path first: for a PoC, weekly CSV exports to a secure storage location that Gemini can access are often enough. Define a consistent schema with team identifiers, dates, and key metrics (e.g. hours worked, shift changes, sick days, ticket counts). The goal is to give Gemini a time series view per team so it can learn normal vs. abnormal patterns.

Build a Gemini Prompt Template to Flag Risk Hotspots

Once your data is accessible, configure a recurring Gemini analysis that turns raw metrics into human-readable workforce risk insights for HR. Use structured prompts that tell Gemini exactly how to evaluate recent weeks vs. historical baselines and what to flag for review.

System role:
You are an HR workforce risk assistant. You analyse team-level data to detect early signs of burnout and upcoming absence surges.

User prompt:
You receive weekly aggregated data per team:
- average hours worked
- overtime hours
- weekend/late-night shifts
- shift swaps / last-minute changes
- sick days and absence reasons
- ticket volume to HR/IT
- engagement scores or comment sentiment (if available)

Tasks:
1. Compare the last 4 weeks to the previous 12-week baseline.
2. Identify teams with concerning patterns, such as:
   - sustained overtime above 15%
   - >20% increase in sick days
   - strong rise in shift changes or ticket volume
   - worsening sentiment in free-text feedback
3. For each at-risk team, produce a short summary including:
   - risk level (low/medium/high)
   - main signals contributing to the risk
   - suggested follow-up actions for HRBP and line manager.
4. Highlight the top 5 teams requiring immediate attention.

Schedule this analysis weekly and deliver the output directly into HRBP workspaces (e.g. via email, collaboration tools or your HR analytics portal) so it becomes part of their regular rhythm.

Use Gemini to Analyse Unstructured Feedback and Tickets

Burnout risk often appears first in unstructured data: free-text comments in engagement surveys, HR tickets about workload or conflicts, or even coaching notes. Use Gemini’s multimodal and NLP capabilities to turn this noise into structured signals.

System role:
You are an HR text analytics assistant. You summarise and classify employee feedback to support burnout risk detection.

User prompt:
Here are anonymised employee comments and HR ticket descriptions from the last 4 weeks.

Tasks:
1. Group them by dominant topic (e.g. workload, processes, leadership, working hours, tools).
2. For each topic, assess the sentiment (positive/neutral/negative).
3. Identify any comments that explicitly or implicitly mention stress, exhaustion, unfair workload, or thoughts of leaving.
4. Produce a team-level overview:
   - main topics per team
   - trend vs. last month (if previous summary is provided)
   - red-flag quotes (fully anonymised) illustrating risk.

Feed these structured outputs back into your main risk view. This lets you combine quantitative metrics (hours, absences) with qualitative context, improving the accuracy of your burnout predictions.

Create Standardised HR Playbooks Based on Gemini Alerts

Insights are only useful if they trigger clear action. For each risk level Gemini can assign (e.g. low/medium/high), define a concrete HR playbook specifying who does what within which timeline. Document these steps and make them accessible alongside the weekly risk report.

For example, a "high" risk alert for a team might trigger: a joint HRBP–manager meeting within 5 days, a workload review using time data, a short anonymous pulse survey powered by Gemini to collect fresh qualitative feedback, and an agreed set of short-term relief actions (e.g. temporary headcount, reprioritised projects). Make Gemini part of this playbook by generating manager-ready summaries:

Prompt snippet for manager briefings:
"Based on the following risk summary, draft a 1-page briefing for the line manager.
Explain the situation in simple language, avoid technical jargon, and propose 3 concrete steps they can take in the next 2 weeks to reduce burnout risk in their team."

This closes the loop from prediction to intervention and ensures HR doesn’t just consume analytics passively.

Prototype Dashboards with Gemini Before Hard-Coding BI Reports

Instead of immediately investing in complex BI dashboards, use Gemini to quickly prototype different ways of visualising and narrating workforce risk hotspots. Ask Gemini to suggest chart types, thresholds and layouts that would be most helpful for HR and operations.

Prompt example:
"Here is our current weekly risk summary by team (data table attached).
1) Suggest 3 dashboard layouts that would help HR quickly spot burnout and absence risks.
2) For each layout, describe which charts, filters and thresholds to use.
3) Highlight which KPIs should appear on the first screen for HR, and which are secondary details."

Test these narrative and visual concepts with a few HRBPs and managers before committing them into your analytics stack. This reduces rework and ensures that when you do build permanent dashboards, they reflect real user needs.

Continuously Tune Thresholds and Validate Against Real Outcomes

For Gemini-based burnout prediction to stay useful, you need a feedback loop. Every quarter, compare Gemini’s risk classifications with actual outcomes: did flagged teams experience more sick leave, attrition or performance drops? Where did the model over- or under-react?

Use Gemini itself to support this tuning process:

Prompt example:
"Here are 6 months of weekly team-level risk scores from Gemini, plus actual outcomes: sick days, voluntary exits, and overtime.
1) Analyse where the risk model overestimated or underestimated risk.
2) Suggest new thresholds or additional signals that could improve precision.
3) Propose a simple set of rules for updating our risk classification logic."

Document adjustments and communicate them to stakeholders so they understand that the system learns and improves over time rather than being a static "black box".

Implemented step by step, these practices can realistically enable HR to spot emerging burnout and absence surges 2–4 weeks earlier, reduce overtime hotspots in critical teams by 10–20%, and cut the number of "surprise" high-absence incidents. The exact numbers will vary by organisation, but with a focused Gemini setup and clear playbooks, you should expect a tangible shift from reactive firefighting to proactive, data-driven workforce care.

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Frequently Asked Questions

For meaningful burnout and absence surge prediction, Gemini works best with a mix of operational and HR data, ideally at team level. High-impact sources include:

  • HRIS data: headcount, roles, tenure, organisational structure.
  • Time & attendance / scheduling: hours worked, overtime, weekend/night shifts, shift swaps.
  • Absence data: sick days, absence reasons (in aggregated, privacy-safe form).
  • Ticketing/support systems: volume and topics of HR, IT or service desk requests.
  • Engagement and feedback: survey scores and anonymised free-text comments.

You can start with a minimal subset (HRIS + hours + absences) and extend over time. The key is consistent, well-structured data over several months so Gemini can learn normal patterns and detect anomalies.

A focused Gemini PoC for burnout prediction does not need to be a long project. If you can provide basic HRIS and time/absence exports, an initial prototype that highlights risk hotspots by team is typically feasible in a few weeks.

With Reruption’s AI PoC approach, we aim to deliver a working prototype in the 9.900€ framework within weeks, not months: data mapping, a first Gemini analysis pipeline, weekly risk summaries, and initial HRBP feedback. Deeper integrations, dashboards and process changes come after you’ve seen concrete signals and agreed that the approach works for your organisation.

No. One advantage of Gemini for HR is that you can achieve a lot without a large in-house data science team. You do, however, need access to someone who understands your HRIS and scheduling data structure, plus a technical contact who can help set up secure data access.

HR can own the use case (questions, thresholds, playbooks), while IT or an external partner like Reruption handles the integration and model configuration. Over time, we recommend upskilling selected HR analytics or people analytics staff so they can maintain prompts, validate results and collaborate effectively with IT.

The business case for AI-driven burnout prevention comes from avoiding costly surprises. Typical ROI components include: reduced overtime and temporary staffing costs in critical periods, fewer disrupted projects due to simultaneous absences in key roles, lower attrition in high-risk teams, and better utilisation of HRBP time through targeted interventions.

While exact figures depend on your context, organisations often see that preventing just a handful of major burnout-related absences or resignations already covers the initial investment. A structured PoC phase lets you quantify early impact by comparing overtime, absences and attrition in flagged vs. non-flagged teams over a few months.

Reruption combines AI engineering with a Co-Preneur mindset: we don’t just advise, we help you build a working Gemini-based workforce risk solution inside your organisation. Our 9.900€ AI PoC offer is a pragmatic starting point to prove technical feasibility and business value for your specific HR landscape.

Concretely, we help you define the use case, map and connect HRIS/scheduling/ticketing data, design effective Gemini prompts and workflows, and validate outputs with HRBPs. Beyond the PoC, we support you in hardening the solution for production, setting up governance and change management, and embedding the capability in your operating model – acting as a co-founder-like partner until something real ships, not just a slide deck.

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