The Challenge: Inaccurate Cash Flow Projections

Most finance teams still rely on cash flow projections that are stitched together from spreadsheets, rough DSO assumptions and static budget numbers. These forecasts rarely reflect real payment behavior, granular seasonality or detailed contract terms. As a result, even experienced teams are left managing liquidity with tools that are too slow, too coarse and too disconnected from live transactional data.

Traditional approaches were built for a world of stable demand and predictable payment patterns. A controller exports bookings from the ERP, aggregates receivables by ageing bucket, applies an average DSO and calls it a forecast. Budget owners send Excel files once a year, and any mid-year change quickly turns the model into a patchwork. Manual workarounds make it impossible to realistically integrate thousands of invoices, payment histories and contract clauses into one coherent view. Under volatility, this approach breaks down.

The business impact is significant. Underestimated outflows or overestimated inflows create surprise liquidity gaps that force last-minute funding at poor conditions. Overly conservative planning leads to idle cash and missed investment or discount opportunities. At group level, inaccurate cash flow projections limit the ability to manage working capital, negotiate better banking terms and plan strategic moves with confidence. Finance becomes a reporter of what happened instead of a driver of what should happen.

Yet this challenge is solvable. With the right data foundation and AI tooling, cash flow forecasting can move from static, assumption-driven spreadsheets to dynamic, driver-based planning that updates with every booking and payment. At Reruption, we’ve built AI-driven planning and analytics solutions that connect live data, scenario logic and business rules into usable tools for finance teams. The guidance below shows how you can use Gemini, together with Google Sheets and BigQuery, to turn cash flow projections into a reliable steering instrument.

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Our Assessment

A strategic assessment of the challenge and high-level tips how to tackle it.

From Reruption’s perspective, the most powerful way to attack inaccurate cash flow projections is to combine a solid data backbone in BigQuery with Gemini’s reasoning capabilities directly in Google Sheets. We’ve seen in multiple AI build-outs that the real leverage comes when finance can probe scenarios, adjust assumptions and interpret results themselves, instead of waiting for IT. Used correctly, Gemini for finance planning doesn’t replace your model – it continuously learns from historical patterns and external data to stress-test and enrich it.

Design Cash Flow Forecasting as a Dynamic System, Not a One-Off Model

Before touching Gemini, step back and reframe how your organisation thinks about cash flow forecasting. Instead of a yearly budgeting exercise, treat it as a living system that digests new invoices, payments and contracts every day. This mindset shift is crucial: a dynamic system can be improved and automated; a static spreadsheet will always stay brittle.

Use Gemini to support this system, not define it. Clearly articulate which inputs (ERP transactions, bank statements, CRM pipeline, contract data) should feed into BigQuery, which business rules drive timing (payment terms, approval flows, delivery milestones), and which outputs finance needs (13-week liquidity view, covenant headroom, currency exposure). With this architecture defined, Gemini can reason over well-structured data instead of compensating for a broken process.

Start with One High-Impact Cash Flow Use Case

A common mistake is trying to rebuild the entire planning universe with AI from day one. For Gemini in finance, identify a concrete, high-impact slice of cash flow where inaccuracies hurt you most: for example, customer collections in a key region, capex payment schedules, or subscription renewals.

Piloting Gemini on one use case lets finance, IT and data teams align on standards for data quality, access rights and validation without risking the full planning cycle. Once you see that Gemini can reliably predict actual vs. planned inflows for, say, your top 200 customers, it becomes much easier to extend the logic to other segments and maturities.

Make Finance the Product Owner, Not a Stakeholder

AI-driven financial planning fails when it is treated as an IT or data-science side project. To get real value from Gemini, appoint a finance product owner with decision power over forecasting logic, aggregation levels, and business rules. This person should be close enough to the numbers to understand nuances, and senior enough to challenge old planning habits.

Gemini’s tight integration with Google Sheets is ideal here: finance analysts can experiment with prompts, scenario definitions, and exception rules in a familiar interface. Data teams provide the BigQuery layer and governance, but finance owns how Gemini-generated forecasts are reviewed, approved and embedded into monthly cycles. This ownership is key for adoption and trust.

Invest Early in Data Quality and Traceability

AI will amplify whatever data you feed it. If your invoice data, payment history or contract terms are inconsistent, Gemini will surface that inconsistency in your cash flow projections. Strategically, it’s worth investing early in a minimal, but reliable, data model: unique IDs across ERP and bank data, clear mappings of customers and contracts, and explicit tables for payment terms and exceptions.

Equally important is traceability. Finance leaders need to be able to ask, “Why did Gemini project a delay in this inflow?” and get a clear answer. Structuring your BigQuery data so that Gemini can reference the underlying invoices, terms and historical delays builds the trust required for AI-assisted decisions, especially when liquidity is tight.

Define Governance for Scenarios, Not Just for Data

Many organisations focus governance on data access but ignore scenario governance. With Gemini, it becomes trivial for individuals to spin up optimistic or pessimistic scenarios. Without agreed guardrails, your organisation risks arguing over whose scenario is right instead of what to do.

Define a small set of “official” cash flow planning scenarios (e.g. base, downturn, upside) with clear rules on external drivers (FX, interest rates, sales pipeline conversion). Use Gemini to generate and document these scenarios in Sheets based on BigQuery inputs, and make sure finance leadership signs off on which scenarios are used for funding, investment and working capital decisions.

Used thoughtfully, Gemini for cash flow forecasting allows finance teams to move from static, DSO-based estimates to dynamic projections grounded in real transactions, behavior and contract terms. The key is to pair Gemini’s reasoning with a clean data backbone and clear ownership in finance. At Reruption, we specialise in building exactly these AI-first planning systems end-to-end, from BigQuery models to Gemini-powered Sheets frontends, and we’re happy to explore a focused proof of concept if you want to de-risk this step before scaling.

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Real-World Case Studies

From Human Resources to Agriculture: Learn how companies successfully use Gemini.

Unilever

Human Resources

Unilever, a consumer goods giant handling 1.8 million job applications annually, struggled with a manual recruitment process that was extremely time-consuming and inefficient . Traditional methods took up to four months to fill positions, overburdening recruiters and delaying talent acquisition across its global operations . The process also risked unconscious biases in CV screening and interviews, limiting workforce diversity and potentially overlooking qualified candidates from underrepresented groups . High volumes made it impossible to assess every applicant thoroughly, leading to high costs estimated at millions annually and inconsistent hiring quality . Unilever needed a scalable, fair system to streamline early-stage screening while maintaining psychometric rigor.

Lösung

Unilever adopted an AI-powered recruitment funnel partnering with Pymetrics for neuroscience-based gamified assessments that measure cognitive, emotional, and behavioral traits via ML algorithms trained on diverse global data . This was followed by AI-analyzed video interviews using computer vision and NLP to evaluate body language, facial expressions, tone of voice, and word choice objectively . Applications were anonymized to minimize bias, with AI shortlisting top 10-20% of candidates for human review, integrating psychometric ML models for personality profiling . The system was piloted in high-volume entry-level roles before global rollout .

Ergebnisse

  • Time-to-hire: 90% reduction (4 months to 4 weeks)
  • Recruiter time saved: 50,000 hours
  • Annual cost savings: £1 million
  • Diversity hires increase: 16% (incl. neuro-atypical candidates)
  • Candidates shortlisted for humans: 90% reduction
  • Applications processed: 1.8 million/year
Read case study →

Maersk

Shipping

In the demanding world of maritime logistics, Maersk, the world's largest container shipping company, faced significant challenges from unexpected ship engine failures. These failures, often due to wear on critical components like two-stroke diesel engines under constant high-load operations, led to costly delays, emergency repairs, and multimillion-dollar losses in downtime. With a fleet of over 700 vessels traversing global routes, even a single failure could disrupt supply chains, increase fuel inefficiency, and elevate emissions . Suboptimal ship operations compounded the issue. Traditional fixed-speed routing ignored real-time factors like weather, currents, and engine health, resulting in excessive fuel consumption—which accounts for up to 50% of operating costs—and higher CO2 emissions. Delays from breakdowns averaged days per incident, amplifying logistical bottlenecks in an industry where reliability is paramount .

Lösung

Maersk tackled these issues with machine learning (ML) for predictive maintenance and optimization. By analyzing vast datasets from engine sensors, AIS (Automatic Identification System), and meteorological data, ML models predict failures days or weeks in advance, enabling proactive interventions. This integrates with route and speed optimization algorithms that dynamically adjust voyages for fuel efficiency . Implementation involved partnering with tech leaders like Wärtsilä for fleet solutions and internal digital transformation, using MLOps for scalable deployment across the fleet. AI dashboards provide real-time insights to crews and shore teams, shifting from reactive to predictive operations .

Ergebnisse

  • Fuel consumption reduced by 5-10% through AI route optimization
  • Unplanned engine downtime cut by 20-30%
  • Maintenance costs lowered by 15-25%
  • Operational efficiency improved by 10-15%
  • CO2 emissions decreased by up to 8%
  • Predictive accuracy for failures: 85-95%
Read case study →

Mastercard

Payments

In the high-stakes world of digital payments, card-testing attacks emerged as a critical threat to Mastercard's ecosystem. Fraudsters deploy automated bots to probe stolen card details through micro-transactions across thousands of merchants, validating credentials for larger fraud schemes. Traditional rule-based and machine learning systems often detected these only after initial tests succeeded, allowing billions in annual losses and disrupting legitimate commerce. The subtlety of these attacks—low-value, high-volume probes mimicking normal behavior—overwhelmed legacy models, exacerbated by fraudsters' use of AI to evade patterns. As transaction volumes exploded post-pandemic, Mastercard faced mounting pressure to shift from reactive to proactive fraud prevention. False positives from overzealous alerts led to declined legitimate transactions, eroding customer trust, while sophisticated attacks like card-testing evaded detection in real-time. The company needed a solution to identify compromised cards preemptively, analyzing vast networks of interconnected transactions without compromising speed or accuracy.

Lösung

Mastercard's Decision Intelligence (DI) platform integrated generative AI with graph-based machine learning to revolutionize fraud detection. Generative AI simulates fraud scenarios and generates synthetic transaction data, accelerating model training and anomaly detection by mimicking rare attack patterns that real data lacks. Graph technology maps entities like cards, merchants, IPs, and devices as interconnected nodes, revealing hidden fraud rings and propagation paths in transaction graphs. This hybrid approach processes signals at unprecedented scale, using gen AI to prioritize high-risk patterns and graphs to contextualize relationships. Implemented via Mastercard's AI Garage, it enables real-time scoring of card compromise risk, alerting issuers before fraud escalates. The system combats card-testing by flagging anomalous testing clusters early. Deployment involved iterative testing with financial institutions, leveraging Mastercard's global network for robust validation while ensuring explainability to build issuer confidence.

Ergebnisse

  • 2x faster detection of potentially compromised cards
  • Up to 300% boost in fraud detection effectiveness
  • Doubled rate of proactive compromised card notifications
  • Significant reduction in fraudulent transactions post-detection
  • Minimized false declines on legitimate transactions
  • Real-time processing of billions of transactions
Read case study →

NatWest

Banking

NatWest Group, a leading UK bank serving over 19 million customers, grappled with escalating demands for digital customer service. Traditional systems like the original Cora chatbot handled routine queries effectively but struggled with complex, nuanced interactions, often escalating 80-90% of cases to human agents. This led to delays, higher operational costs, and risks to customer satisfaction amid rising expectations for instant, personalized support . Simultaneously, the surge in financial fraud posed a critical threat, requiring seamless fraud reporting and detection within chat interfaces without compromising security or user trust. Regulatory compliance, data privacy under UK GDPR, and ethical AI deployment added layers of complexity, as the bank aimed to scale support while minimizing errors in high-stakes banking scenarios . Balancing innovation with reliability was paramount; poor AI performance could erode trust in a sector where customer satisfaction directly impacts retention and revenue .

Lösung

Cora+, launched in June 2024, marked NatWest's first major upgrade using generative AI to enable proactive, intuitive responses for complex queries, reducing escalations and enhancing self-service . This built on Cora's established platform, which already managed millions of interactions monthly. In a pioneering move, NatWest partnered with OpenAI in March 2025—becoming the first UK-headquartered bank to do so—integrating LLMs into both customer-facing Cora and internal tool Ask Archie. This allowed natural language processing for fraud reports, personalized advice, and process simplification while embedding safeguards for compliance and bias mitigation . The approach emphasized ethical AI, with rigorous testing, human oversight, and continuous monitoring to ensure safe, accurate interactions in fraud detection and service delivery .

Ergebnisse

  • 150% increase in Cora customer satisfaction scores (2024)
  • Proactive resolution of complex queries without human intervention
  • First UK bank OpenAI partnership, accelerating AI adoption
  • Enhanced fraud detection via real-time chat analysis
  • Millions of monthly interactions handled autonomously
  • Significant reduction in agent escalation rates
Read case study →

Duke Health

Healthcare

Sepsis is a leading cause of hospital mortality, affecting over 1.7 million Americans annually with a 20-30% mortality rate when recognized late. At Duke Health, clinicians faced the challenge of early detection amid subtle, non-specific symptoms mimicking other conditions, leading to delayed interventions like antibiotics and fluids. Traditional scoring systems like qSOFA or NEWS suffered from low sensitivity (around 50-60%) and high false alarms, causing alert fatigue in busy wards and EDs. Additionally, integrating AI into real-time clinical workflows posed risks: ensuring model accuracy on diverse patient data, gaining clinician trust, and complying with regulations without disrupting care. Duke needed a custom, explainable model trained on its own EHR data to avoid vendor biases and enable seamless adoption across its three hospitals.

Lösung

Duke's Sepsis Watch is a deep learning model leveraging real-time EHR data (vitals, labs, demographics) to continuously monitor hospitalized patients and predict sepsis onset 6 hours in advance with high precision. Developed by the Duke Institute for Health Innovation (DIHI), it triggers nurse-facing alerts (Best Practice Advisories) only when risk exceeds thresholds, minimizing fatigue. The model was trained on Duke-specific data from 250,000+ encounters, achieving AUROC of 0.935 at 3 hours prior and 88% sensitivity at low false positive rates. Integration via Epic EHR used a human-centered design, involving clinicians in iterations to refine alerts and workflows, ensuring safe deployment without overriding clinical judgment.

Ergebnisse

  • AUROC: 0.935 for sepsis prediction 3 hours prior
  • Sensitivity: 88% at 3 hours early detection
  • Reduced time to antibiotics: 1.2 hours faster
  • Alert override rate: <10% (high clinician trust)
  • Sepsis bundle compliance: Improved by 20%
  • Mortality reduction: Associated with 12% drop in sepsis deaths
Read case study →

Best Practices

Successful implementations follow proven patterns. Have a look at our tactical advice to get started.

Connect BigQuery to Your Core Finance Systems and Normalize Payment Data

The tactical foundation for accurate cash flow projections with Gemini is a unified dataset in BigQuery. Start by streaming or batch-loading data from your ERP (invoices, credit notes, payment terms), your banking provider (actual cash movements), and optionally your CRM (pipeline and orders) into separate staging tables.

Create a normalized model that links invoices to customers, contracts and payments. For example, build a fact_invoice table with fields like invoice_id, due_date, amount, currency, payment_terms, customer_id, and a fact_payment table capturing actual value dates. Then define a view that calculates historical days to pay per customer, product line or region. This structure is what you will later expose to Google Sheets and Gemini.

Use Gemini in Google Sheets to Build a Behavior-Based Inflow Model

Once your BigQuery model is in place, use the native Google Sheets – BigQuery connector to pull in the relevant views (e.g. invoice history, payment behaviour statistics). Then, leverage Gemini inside Sheets to turn this into a behavior-based inflow forecast per customer or segment.

For instance, you can paste a subset of invoice and payment history into a sheet and prompt Gemini to classify customers by payment behavior and create projection rules. A sample prompt:

You are assisting with cash flow forecasting.

1. You receive a table with the following columns:
   - customer_id
   - invoice_date
   - due_date
   - invoice_amount
   - payment_date (may be empty for open invoices)

2. Tasks:
   - Calculate historical days-to-pay for each customer.
   - Group customers into 3 behaviour segments: early, on-time, late.
   - For open invoices, predict expected payment date based on segment, seasonality
     and any visible patterns.
   - Return a new table with expected_payment_date and probability of delay (>14 days).

Output the result as a clean table that I can paste back into this sheet.

Review and validate the output for a sample of high-value customers, then gradually automate this by embedding Gemini prompts and formulas into your Sheets templates.

Automate 13-Week Cash Flow Views with Gemini-Assisted Formulas

Short-term liquidity steering lives and dies by the 13-week view. In Google Sheets, set up a calendar grid for the next 13 weeks as columns, and use formulas to allocate projected inflows and outflows to weeks based on expected payment dates and schedule information from BigQuery.

Use Gemini to generate and refine these allocation formulas. For example, highlight your data structure and ask Gemini:

You are helping to build a 13-week cash flow model in Google Sheets.

The sheet has:
- Column A: cashflow_item_id
- Column B: type (inflow/outflow)
- Column C: expected_date
- Column D: amount
- Columns F:R: calendar weeks (dates in row 1)

Write a formula that, for each row, allocates the amount to the correct week column
based on expected_date, with inflows as positive, outflows as negative.
Use only standard Google Sheets formulas and reference row 2 as the first data row.

Gemini can propose and explain formulas using INDEX, MATCH and IF logic, which you then standardise across your planning templates. The result is an automated 13-week cash flow that updates when new data flows into BigQuery and is refreshed in Sheets.

Use Gemini to Stress-Test Assumptions and Build What-If Scenarios

Beyond baseline forecasts, use Gemini for scenario analysis on your cash flow model. In a dedicated “Assumptions” sheet, define drivers such as DSO shift by segment, collection improvement initiatives, FX rates, or changes in supplier terms. Link these to your formulas so that changing an assumption recalculates the 13-week view.

Then, ask Gemini to generate what-if configurations and interpret the impact. Example prompt:

You are a financial planning assistant.

We have a 13-week cash flow model in this spreadsheet.
Assumptions are listed in the 'Assumptions' tab:
- dso_shift_days
- collection_improvement_pct
- fx_rate_eur_usd

1. Propose 3 scenarios (base, downside, upside) with concrete values for
   these assumptions, consistent with recent history in the data.
2. For each scenario, calculate and summarize:
   - Minimum weekly cash balance
   - Maximum weekly funding need
   - Main drivers compared to base case

Return your answer as:
- A small table of assumptions per scenario
- A short textual interpretation for finance management.

Copy the suggested assumptions into your model, run the recalculation, and use Gemini’s interpretation as a starting point for management discussion.

Flag Anomalies and High-Risk Items in Receivables and Payables

Gemini is also effective as an anomaly detector on top of your BigQuery data. In Sheets, bring in a list of open items with fields such as customer, amount, days overdue, usual days-to-pay and contact history. Use Gemini to flag high-risk receivables that are likely to slip beyond their predicted payment date, or payables with unusual patterns.

For example:

You are analysing open receivables to improve cash flow forecasting.

You receive a table with:
- customer_id
- invoice_id
- amount
- due_date
- predicted_payment_date
- current_date
- usual_days_to_pay_customer

1. Highlight invoices that are likely to be paid later than
   predicted_payment_date.
2. Use patterns in historical behaviour, amount, and timing.
3. Mark each invoice as 'ok', 'watch', or 'high risk' and explain why.
4. Suggest concrete collection actions for 'high risk' items.

Return a table with an additional 'risk_flag' and 'action_recommendation' column.

Feed these flags back into your cash flow views to adjust expected dates and to coordinate collections with sales and operations.

Document the Logic and Controls Directly in the Sheet with Gemini

To ensure reliability and auditability, document your model logic where it lives – in Google Sheets. Use Gemini to generate clear explanations for complex formulas, data mappings and assumptions that finance and audit teams can understand without diving into the technical implementation.

Select a cell with a complex formula or an assumptions range and prompt Gemini to explain and document it in plain language. For example:

You are documenting a cash flow model for internal controls.

1. Read the formula in cell H2 and the surrounding cells.
2. Explain in simple finance language what this formula does and how
   it impacts the 13-week cash flow forecast.
3. List any implicit assumptions and potential failure points
   (e.g., missing dates, wrong sign for outflows).
4. Write the explanation as a short documentation note that can be
   pasted into a 'Model Documentation' sheet.

This practice creates living documentation as the model evolves, reducing key-person risk and making it easier to onboard new team members or satisfy auditors.

Implemented step by step, these practices typically lead to more stable and transparent cash flow forecasting. In our experience, finance teams can often cut manual forecasting effort by 30–50%, reduce forecast error for the next 4–8 weeks by 20–40%, and gain earlier visibility into liquidity gaps, enabling more proactive working capital and funding decisions.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Gemini improves cash flow forecast accuracy by learning from your real transaction history instead of relying on a single DSO assumption. Connected to BigQuery and Google Sheets, it can recognise patterns in when specific customers, regions or product lines actually pay, how seasonality affects inflows, and how contract terms translate into cash movements.

Practically, Gemini helps you predict expected payment dates per invoice or customer, stress-test your assumptions, and continuously update the forecast as new bookings and payments come in. The result is a projection that reflects how your business behaves in reality, not how a static model assumed it would behave at budget time.

You typically need three capabilities: a finance owner who understands your current cash flow planning and business drivers, a data engineer or BI specialist to set up BigQuery models and data pipelines, and someone familiar with Google Sheets to build the planning templates. Deep AI expertise is helpful but not mandatory – Gemini’s interface in Sheets is designed for business users.

Many teams start with existing BI resources and one motivated controller. Reruption can complement your internal skills with our AI engineering team and our Co-Preneur approach, so that your finance function doesn’t have to become an AI lab to get value quickly.

Timelines depend on your data landscape, but in most organisations we see useful results within a few weeks if the scope is focused. A typical path is: 1–2 weeks to connect core tables from ERP and banking to BigQuery, 1 week to build a first 13-week cash flow view in Sheets, and another 1–2 weeks to integrate Gemini for behaviour-based predictions and scenario analysis.

You don’t need a perfect data warehouse to start. By scoping to a subset of customers or regions, you can validate the Gemini cash flow forecasting approach quickly, measure forecast error improvements, and then extend the model to the rest of the business.

The direct costs of Gemini itself are typically modest compared to the value of better liquidity steering. The main investment is in setting up the BigQuery data model, Sheets templates and workflows. ROI comes from several sources: lower manual effort in forecasting, fewer surprise liquidity gaps (and therefore better funding conditions), better utilisation of idle cash, and more informed decisions on payment terms and collection priorities.

Finance leaders often see value when they can reduce forecast error for the next 4–8 weeks by even 10–20%, or when earlier visibility of a funding gap allows renegotiation with banks instead of last-minute, expensive credit. We recommend defining specific KPIs (forecast accuracy, manual hours saved, working capital improvements) before starting, so you can quantify ROI over the first 3–6 months.

Reruption supports companies end-to-end in building AI-powered finance solutions. With our 9.900€ AI PoC offering, we can quickly validate whether a Gemini-based cash flow forecasting model is technically feasible on your data: we scope the use case, design the BigQuery model, build a working prototype in Google Sheets with Gemini, and measure performance and forecast accuracy.

Beyond the PoC, our Co-Preneur approach means we work inside your organisation like a co-founder team: embedding with finance, IT and data teams, hardening the prototype, addressing security and compliance, and turning it into a robust planning tool that runs on your existing P&L. We don’t optimise your old spreadsheets – we help you build the AI-first cash flow planning system that will replace them.

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