The Challenge: Inaccurate Cash Flow Projections

Most finance teams still rely on cash flow projections that are stitched together from spreadsheets, rough DSO assumptions and static budget numbers. These forecasts rarely reflect real payment behavior, granular seasonality or detailed contract terms. As a result, even experienced teams are left managing liquidity with tools that are too slow, too coarse and too disconnected from live transactional data.

Traditional approaches were built for a world of stable demand and predictable payment patterns. A controller exports bookings from the ERP, aggregates receivables by ageing bucket, applies an average DSO and calls it a forecast. Budget owners send Excel files once a year, and any mid-year change quickly turns the model into a patchwork. Manual workarounds make it impossible to realistically integrate thousands of invoices, payment histories and contract clauses into one coherent view. Under volatility, this approach breaks down.

The business impact is significant. Underestimated outflows or overestimated inflows create surprise liquidity gaps that force last-minute funding at poor conditions. Overly conservative planning leads to idle cash and missed investment or discount opportunities. At group level, inaccurate cash flow projections limit the ability to manage working capital, negotiate better banking terms and plan strategic moves with confidence. Finance becomes a reporter of what happened instead of a driver of what should happen.

Yet this challenge is solvable. With the right data foundation and AI tooling, cash flow forecasting can move from static, assumption-driven spreadsheets to dynamic, driver-based planning that updates with every booking and payment. At Reruption, we’ve built AI-driven planning and analytics solutions that connect live data, scenario logic and business rules into usable tools for finance teams. The guidance below shows how you can use Gemini, together with Google Sheets and BigQuery, to turn cash flow projections into a reliable steering instrument.

Need a sparring partner for this challenge?

Let's have a no-obligation chat and brainstorm together.

Innovators at these companies trust us:

Our Assessment

A strategic assessment of the challenge and high-level tips how to tackle it.

From Reruption’s perspective, the most powerful way to attack inaccurate cash flow projections is to combine a solid data backbone in BigQuery with Gemini’s reasoning capabilities directly in Google Sheets. We’ve seen in multiple AI build-outs that the real leverage comes when finance can probe scenarios, adjust assumptions and interpret results themselves, instead of waiting for IT. Used correctly, Gemini for finance planning doesn’t replace your model – it continuously learns from historical patterns and external data to stress-test and enrich it.

Design Cash Flow Forecasting as a Dynamic System, Not a One-Off Model

Before touching Gemini, step back and reframe how your organisation thinks about cash flow forecasting. Instead of a yearly budgeting exercise, treat it as a living system that digests new invoices, payments and contracts every day. This mindset shift is crucial: a dynamic system can be improved and automated; a static spreadsheet will always stay brittle.

Use Gemini to support this system, not define it. Clearly articulate which inputs (ERP transactions, bank statements, CRM pipeline, contract data) should feed into BigQuery, which business rules drive timing (payment terms, approval flows, delivery milestones), and which outputs finance needs (13-week liquidity view, covenant headroom, currency exposure). With this architecture defined, Gemini can reason over well-structured data instead of compensating for a broken process.

Start with One High-Impact Cash Flow Use Case

A common mistake is trying to rebuild the entire planning universe with AI from day one. For Gemini in finance, identify a concrete, high-impact slice of cash flow where inaccuracies hurt you most: for example, customer collections in a key region, capex payment schedules, or subscription renewals.

Piloting Gemini on one use case lets finance, IT and data teams align on standards for data quality, access rights and validation without risking the full planning cycle. Once you see that Gemini can reliably predict actual vs. planned inflows for, say, your top 200 customers, it becomes much easier to extend the logic to other segments and maturities.

Make Finance the Product Owner, Not a Stakeholder

AI-driven financial planning fails when it is treated as an IT or data-science side project. To get real value from Gemini, appoint a finance product owner with decision power over forecasting logic, aggregation levels, and business rules. This person should be close enough to the numbers to understand nuances, and senior enough to challenge old planning habits.

Gemini’s tight integration with Google Sheets is ideal here: finance analysts can experiment with prompts, scenario definitions, and exception rules in a familiar interface. Data teams provide the BigQuery layer and governance, but finance owns how Gemini-generated forecasts are reviewed, approved and embedded into monthly cycles. This ownership is key for adoption and trust.

Invest Early in Data Quality and Traceability

AI will amplify whatever data you feed it. If your invoice data, payment history or contract terms are inconsistent, Gemini will surface that inconsistency in your cash flow projections. Strategically, it’s worth investing early in a minimal, but reliable, data model: unique IDs across ERP and bank data, clear mappings of customers and contracts, and explicit tables for payment terms and exceptions.

Equally important is traceability. Finance leaders need to be able to ask, “Why did Gemini project a delay in this inflow?” and get a clear answer. Structuring your BigQuery data so that Gemini can reference the underlying invoices, terms and historical delays builds the trust required for AI-assisted decisions, especially when liquidity is tight.

Define Governance for Scenarios, Not Just for Data

Many organisations focus governance on data access but ignore scenario governance. With Gemini, it becomes trivial for individuals to spin up optimistic or pessimistic scenarios. Without agreed guardrails, your organisation risks arguing over whose scenario is right instead of what to do.

Define a small set of “official” cash flow planning scenarios (e.g. base, downturn, upside) with clear rules on external drivers (FX, interest rates, sales pipeline conversion). Use Gemini to generate and document these scenarios in Sheets based on BigQuery inputs, and make sure finance leadership signs off on which scenarios are used for funding, investment and working capital decisions.

Used thoughtfully, Gemini for cash flow forecasting allows finance teams to move from static, DSO-based estimates to dynamic projections grounded in real transactions, behavior and contract terms. The key is to pair Gemini’s reasoning with a clean data backbone and clear ownership in finance. At Reruption, we specialise in building exactly these AI-first planning systems end-to-end, from BigQuery models to Gemini-powered Sheets frontends, and we’re happy to explore a focused proof of concept if you want to de-risk this step before scaling.

Need help implementing these ideas?

Feel free to reach out to us with no obligation.

Real-World Case Studies

From Banking to News Media: Learn how companies successfully use Gemini.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

Banking

As Australia's largest bank, CBA faced escalating scam and fraud threats, with customers suffering significant financial losses. Scammers exploited rapid digital payments like PayID, where mismatched payee names led to irreversible transfers. Traditional detection lagged behind sophisticated attacks, resulting in high customer harm and regulatory pressure. Simultaneously, contact centers were overwhelmed, handling millions of inquiries on fraud alerts and transactions. This led to long wait times, increased operational costs, and strained resources. CBA needed proactive, scalable AI to intervene in real-time while reducing reliance on human agents.

Lösung

CBA deployed a hybrid AI stack blending machine learning for anomaly detection and generative AI for personalized warnings. NameCheck verifies payee names against PayID in real-time, alerting users to mismatches. CallerCheck authenticates inbound calls, blocking impersonation scams. Partnering with H2O.ai, CBA implemented GenAI-driven predictive models for scam intelligence. An AI virtual assistant in the CommBank app handles routine queries, generates natural responses, and escalates complex issues. Integration with Apate.ai provides near real-time scam intel, enhancing proactive blocking across channels.

Ergebnisse

  • 70% reduction in scam losses
  • 50% cut in customer fraud losses by 2024
  • 30% drop in fraud cases via proactive warnings
  • 40% reduction in contact center wait times
  • 95%+ accuracy in NameCheck payee matching
Read case study →

FedEx

Logistics

FedEx faced suboptimal truck routing challenges in its vast logistics network, where static planning led to excess mileage, inflated fuel costs, and higher labor expenses . Handling millions of packages daily across complex routes, traditional methods struggled with real-time variables like traffic, weather disruptions, and fluctuating demand, resulting in inefficient vehicle utilization and delayed deliveries . These inefficiencies not only drove up operational costs but also increased carbon emissions and undermined customer satisfaction in a highly competitive shipping industry. Scaling solutions for dynamic optimization across thousands of trucks required advanced computational approaches beyond conventional heuristics .

Lösung

Machine learning models integrated with heuristic optimization algorithms formed the core of FedEx's AI-driven route planning system, enabling dynamic route adjustments based on real-time data feeds including traffic, weather, and package volumes . The system employs deep learning for predictive analytics alongside heuristics like genetic algorithms to solve the vehicle routing problem (VRP) efficiently, balancing loads and minimizing empty miles . Implemented as part of FedEx's broader AI supply chain transformation, the solution dynamically reoptimizes routes throughout the day, incorporating sense-and-respond capabilities to adapt to disruptions and enhance overall network efficiency .

Ergebnisse

  • 700,000 excess miles eliminated daily from truck routes
  • Multi-million dollar annual savings in fuel and labor costs
  • Improved delivery time estimate accuracy via ML models
  • Enhanced operational efficiency reducing costs industry-wide
  • Boosted on-time performance through real-time optimizations
  • Significant reduction in carbon footprint from mileage savings
Read case study →

Waymo (Alphabet)

Transportation

Developing fully autonomous ride-hailing demanded overcoming extreme challenges in AI reliability for real-world roads. Waymo needed to master perception—detecting objects in fog, rain, night, or occlusions using sensors alone—while predicting erratic human behaviors like jaywalking or sudden lane changes. Planning complex trajectories in dense, unpredictable urban traffic, and precise control to execute maneuvers without collisions, required near-perfect accuracy, as a single failure could be catastrophic . Scaling from tests to commercial fleets introduced hurdles like handling edge cases (e.g., school buses with stop signs, emergency vehicles), regulatory approvals across cities, and public trust amid scrutiny. Incidents like failing to stop for school buses highlighted software gaps, prompting recalls. Massive data needs for training, compute-intensive models, and geographic adaptation (e.g., right-hand vs. left-hand driving) compounded issues, with competitors struggling on scalability .

Lösung

Waymo's Waymo Driver stack integrates deep learning end-to-end: perception fuses lidar, radar, and cameras via convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and transformers for 3D object detection, tracking, and semantic mapping with high fidelity. Prediction models forecast multi-agent behaviors using graph neural networks and video transformers trained on billions of simulated and real miles . For planning, Waymo applied scaling laws—larger models with more data/compute yield power-law gains in forecasting accuracy and trajectory quality—shifting from rule-based to ML-driven motion planning for human-like decisions. Control employs reinforcement learning and model-predictive control hybridized with neural policies for smooth, safe execution. Vast datasets from 96M+ autonomous miles, plus simulations, enable continuous improvement; recent AI strategy emphasizes modular, scalable stacks .

Ergebnisse

  • 450,000+ weekly paid robotaxi rides (Dec 2025)
  • 96 million autonomous miles driven (through June 2025)
  • 3.5x better avoiding injury-causing crashes vs. humans
  • 2x better avoiding police-reported crashes vs. humans
  • Over 71M miles with detailed safety crash analysis
  • 250,000 weekly rides (April 2025 baseline, since doubled)
Read case study →

IBM

Technology

In a massive global workforce exceeding 280,000 employees, IBM grappled with high employee turnover rates, particularly among high-performing and top talent. The cost of replacing a single employee—including recruitment, onboarding, and lost productivity—can exceed $4,000-$10,000 per hire, amplifying losses in a competitive tech talent market. Manually identifying at-risk employees was nearly impossible amid vast HR data silos spanning demographics, performance reviews, compensation, job satisfaction surveys, and work-life balance metrics. Traditional HR approaches relied on exit interviews and anecdotal feedback, which were reactive and ineffective for prevention. With attrition rates hovering around industry averages of 10-20% annually, IBM faced annual costs in the hundreds of millions from rehiring and training, compounded by knowledge loss and morale dips in a tight labor market. The challenge intensified as retaining scarce AI and tech skills became critical for IBM's innovation edge.

Lösung

IBM developed a predictive attrition ML model using its Watson AI platform, analyzing 34+ HR variables like age, salary, overtime, job role, performance ratings, and distance from home from an anonymized dataset of 1,470 employees. Algorithms such as logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, and gradient boosting were trained to flag employees with high flight risk, achieving 95% accuracy in identifying those likely to leave within six months. The model integrated with HR systems for real-time scoring, triggering personalized interventions like career coaching, salary adjustments, or flexible work options. This data-driven shift empowered CHROs and managers to act proactively, prioritizing top performers at risk.

Ergebnisse

  • 95% accuracy in predicting employee turnover
  • Processed 1,470+ employee records with 34 variables
  • 93% accuracy benchmark in optimized Extra Trees model
  • Reduced hiring costs by averting high-value attrition
  • Potential annual savings exceeding $300M in retention (reported)
Read case study →

BP

Energy

BP, a global energy leader in oil, gas, and renewables, grappled with high energy costs during peak periods across its extensive assets. Volatile grid demands and price spikes during high-consumption times strained operations, exacerbating inefficiencies in energy production and consumption. Integrating intermittent renewable sources added forecasting challenges, while traditional management failed to dynamically respond to real-time market signals, leading to substantial financial losses and grid instability risks . Compounding this, BP's diverse portfolio—from offshore platforms to data-heavy exploration—faced data silos and legacy systems ill-equipped for predictive analytics. Peak energy expenses not only eroded margins but hindered the transition to sustainable operations amid rising regulatory pressures for emissions reduction. The company needed a solution to shift loads intelligently and monetize flexibility in energy markets .

Lösung

To tackle these issues, BP acquired Open Energi in 2021, gaining access to its flagship Plato AI platform, which employs machine learning for predictive analytics and real-time optimization. Plato analyzes vast datasets from assets, weather, and grid signals to forecast peaks and automate demand response, shifting non-critical loads to off-peak times while participating in frequency response services . Integrated into BP's operations, the AI enables dynamic containment and flexibility markets, optimizing consumption without disrupting production. Combined with BP's internal AI for exploration and simulation, it provides end-to-end visibility, reducing reliance on fossil fuels during peaks and enhancing renewable integration . This acquisition marked a strategic pivot, blending Open Energi's demand-side expertise with BP's supply-side scale.

Ergebnisse

  • $10 million in annual energy savings
  • 80+ MW of energy assets under flexible management
  • Strongest oil exploration performance in years via AI
  • Material boost in electricity demand optimization
  • Reduced peak grid costs through dynamic response
  • Enhanced asset efficiency across oil, gas, renewables
Read case study →

Best Practices

Successful implementations follow proven patterns. Have a look at our tactical advice to get started.

Connect BigQuery to Your Core Finance Systems and Normalize Payment Data

The tactical foundation for accurate cash flow projections with Gemini is a unified dataset in BigQuery. Start by streaming or batch-loading data from your ERP (invoices, credit notes, payment terms), your banking provider (actual cash movements), and optionally your CRM (pipeline and orders) into separate staging tables.

Create a normalized model that links invoices to customers, contracts and payments. For example, build a fact_invoice table with fields like invoice_id, due_date, amount, currency, payment_terms, customer_id, and a fact_payment table capturing actual value dates. Then define a view that calculates historical days to pay per customer, product line or region. This structure is what you will later expose to Google Sheets and Gemini.

Use Gemini in Google Sheets to Build a Behavior-Based Inflow Model

Once your BigQuery model is in place, use the native Google Sheets – BigQuery connector to pull in the relevant views (e.g. invoice history, payment behaviour statistics). Then, leverage Gemini inside Sheets to turn this into a behavior-based inflow forecast per customer or segment.

For instance, you can paste a subset of invoice and payment history into a sheet and prompt Gemini to classify customers by payment behavior and create projection rules. A sample prompt:

You are assisting with cash flow forecasting.

1. You receive a table with the following columns:
   - customer_id
   - invoice_date
   - due_date
   - invoice_amount
   - payment_date (may be empty for open invoices)

2. Tasks:
   - Calculate historical days-to-pay for each customer.
   - Group customers into 3 behaviour segments: early, on-time, late.
   - For open invoices, predict expected payment date based on segment, seasonality
     and any visible patterns.
   - Return a new table with expected_payment_date and probability of delay (>14 days).

Output the result as a clean table that I can paste back into this sheet.

Review and validate the output for a sample of high-value customers, then gradually automate this by embedding Gemini prompts and formulas into your Sheets templates.

Automate 13-Week Cash Flow Views with Gemini-Assisted Formulas

Short-term liquidity steering lives and dies by the 13-week view. In Google Sheets, set up a calendar grid for the next 13 weeks as columns, and use formulas to allocate projected inflows and outflows to weeks based on expected payment dates and schedule information from BigQuery.

Use Gemini to generate and refine these allocation formulas. For example, highlight your data structure and ask Gemini:

You are helping to build a 13-week cash flow model in Google Sheets.

The sheet has:
- Column A: cashflow_item_id
- Column B: type (inflow/outflow)
- Column C: expected_date
- Column D: amount
- Columns F:R: calendar weeks (dates in row 1)

Write a formula that, for each row, allocates the amount to the correct week column
based on expected_date, with inflows as positive, outflows as negative.
Use only standard Google Sheets formulas and reference row 2 as the first data row.

Gemini can propose and explain formulas using INDEX, MATCH and IF logic, which you then standardise across your planning templates. The result is an automated 13-week cash flow that updates when new data flows into BigQuery and is refreshed in Sheets.

Use Gemini to Stress-Test Assumptions and Build What-If Scenarios

Beyond baseline forecasts, use Gemini for scenario analysis on your cash flow model. In a dedicated “Assumptions” sheet, define drivers such as DSO shift by segment, collection improvement initiatives, FX rates, or changes in supplier terms. Link these to your formulas so that changing an assumption recalculates the 13-week view.

Then, ask Gemini to generate what-if configurations and interpret the impact. Example prompt:

You are a financial planning assistant.

We have a 13-week cash flow model in this spreadsheet.
Assumptions are listed in the 'Assumptions' tab:
- dso_shift_days
- collection_improvement_pct
- fx_rate_eur_usd

1. Propose 3 scenarios (base, downside, upside) with concrete values for
   these assumptions, consistent with recent history in the data.
2. For each scenario, calculate and summarize:
   - Minimum weekly cash balance
   - Maximum weekly funding need
   - Main drivers compared to base case

Return your answer as:
- A small table of assumptions per scenario
- A short textual interpretation for finance management.

Copy the suggested assumptions into your model, run the recalculation, and use Gemini’s interpretation as a starting point for management discussion.

Flag Anomalies and High-Risk Items in Receivables and Payables

Gemini is also effective as an anomaly detector on top of your BigQuery data. In Sheets, bring in a list of open items with fields such as customer, amount, days overdue, usual days-to-pay and contact history. Use Gemini to flag high-risk receivables that are likely to slip beyond their predicted payment date, or payables with unusual patterns.

For example:

You are analysing open receivables to improve cash flow forecasting.

You receive a table with:
- customer_id
- invoice_id
- amount
- due_date
- predicted_payment_date
- current_date
- usual_days_to_pay_customer

1. Highlight invoices that are likely to be paid later than
   predicted_payment_date.
2. Use patterns in historical behaviour, amount, and timing.
3. Mark each invoice as 'ok', 'watch', or 'high risk' and explain why.
4. Suggest concrete collection actions for 'high risk' items.

Return a table with an additional 'risk_flag' and 'action_recommendation' column.

Feed these flags back into your cash flow views to adjust expected dates and to coordinate collections with sales and operations.

Document the Logic and Controls Directly in the Sheet with Gemini

To ensure reliability and auditability, document your model logic where it lives – in Google Sheets. Use Gemini to generate clear explanations for complex formulas, data mappings and assumptions that finance and audit teams can understand without diving into the technical implementation.

Select a cell with a complex formula or an assumptions range and prompt Gemini to explain and document it in plain language. For example:

You are documenting a cash flow model for internal controls.

1. Read the formula in cell H2 and the surrounding cells.
2. Explain in simple finance language what this formula does and how
   it impacts the 13-week cash flow forecast.
3. List any implicit assumptions and potential failure points
   (e.g., missing dates, wrong sign for outflows).
4. Write the explanation as a short documentation note that can be
   pasted into a 'Model Documentation' sheet.

This practice creates living documentation as the model evolves, reducing key-person risk and making it easier to onboard new team members or satisfy auditors.

Implemented step by step, these practices typically lead to more stable and transparent cash flow forecasting. In our experience, finance teams can often cut manual forecasting effort by 30–50%, reduce forecast error for the next 4–8 weeks by 20–40%, and gain earlier visibility into liquidity gaps, enabling more proactive working capital and funding decisions.

Need implementation expertise now?

Let's talk about your ideas!

Frequently Asked Questions

Gemini improves cash flow forecast accuracy by learning from your real transaction history instead of relying on a single DSO assumption. Connected to BigQuery and Google Sheets, it can recognise patterns in when specific customers, regions or product lines actually pay, how seasonality affects inflows, and how contract terms translate into cash movements.

Practically, Gemini helps you predict expected payment dates per invoice or customer, stress-test your assumptions, and continuously update the forecast as new bookings and payments come in. The result is a projection that reflects how your business behaves in reality, not how a static model assumed it would behave at budget time.

You typically need three capabilities: a finance owner who understands your current cash flow planning and business drivers, a data engineer or BI specialist to set up BigQuery models and data pipelines, and someone familiar with Google Sheets to build the planning templates. Deep AI expertise is helpful but not mandatory – Gemini’s interface in Sheets is designed for business users.

Many teams start with existing BI resources and one motivated controller. Reruption can complement your internal skills with our AI engineering team and our Co-Preneur approach, so that your finance function doesn’t have to become an AI lab to get value quickly.

Timelines depend on your data landscape, but in most organisations we see useful results within a few weeks if the scope is focused. A typical path is: 1–2 weeks to connect core tables from ERP and banking to BigQuery, 1 week to build a first 13-week cash flow view in Sheets, and another 1–2 weeks to integrate Gemini for behaviour-based predictions and scenario analysis.

You don’t need a perfect data warehouse to start. By scoping to a subset of customers or regions, you can validate the Gemini cash flow forecasting approach quickly, measure forecast error improvements, and then extend the model to the rest of the business.

The direct costs of Gemini itself are typically modest compared to the value of better liquidity steering. The main investment is in setting up the BigQuery data model, Sheets templates and workflows. ROI comes from several sources: lower manual effort in forecasting, fewer surprise liquidity gaps (and therefore better funding conditions), better utilisation of idle cash, and more informed decisions on payment terms and collection priorities.

Finance leaders often see value when they can reduce forecast error for the next 4–8 weeks by even 10–20%, or when earlier visibility of a funding gap allows renegotiation with banks instead of last-minute, expensive credit. We recommend defining specific KPIs (forecast accuracy, manual hours saved, working capital improvements) before starting, so you can quantify ROI over the first 3–6 months.

Reruption supports companies end-to-end in building AI-powered finance solutions. With our 9.900€ AI PoC offering, we can quickly validate whether a Gemini-based cash flow forecasting model is technically feasible on your data: we scope the use case, design the BigQuery model, build a working prototype in Google Sheets with Gemini, and measure performance and forecast accuracy.

Beyond the PoC, our Co-Preneur approach means we work inside your organisation like a co-founder team: embedding with finance, IT and data teams, hardening the prototype, addressing security and compliance, and turning it into a robust planning tool that runs on your existing P&L. We don’t optimise your old spreadsheets – we help you build the AI-first cash flow planning system that will replace them.

Contact Us!

0/10 min.

Contact Directly

Your Contact

Philipp M. W. Hoffmann

Founder & Partner

Address

Reruption GmbH

Falkertstraße 2

70176 Stuttgart

Social Media