Fix Weak Scenario Planning in Finance with Claude-Powered AI

Let Claude Map Your Existing Planning Model Before Changing Anything

Start by having Claude build a mental model of your current budgeting and forecasting setup. Upload a representative planning workbook (or share anonymised structures), plus any documentation or slide decks you use in the annual budget process. Ask Claude to identify key tabs, link structures, and driver relationships.

This gives you an immediate x-ray of how your model actually works versus how people think it works. Claude can point out where assumptions are hard-coded, where growth rates are inconsistent, and which inputs are reused across many calculations. Use this as the foundation for cleaner scenario design.

Example prompt to map your planning file:

You are assisting the FP&A team with understanding their planning model.

1) Read the attached Excel file(s) and describe:
- Main sheets and their purpose
- Key input assumptions and where they are entered
- Main calculation flows (e.g. revenue build-up, staff costs, capex & depreciation)
- Links between sheets that are critical for the P&L, balance sheet, and cash flow

2) Identify potential risks for scenario planning:
- Hard-coded assumptions instead of driver-based inputs
- Inconsistent formulas across years/business units
- Circular references or complex dependencies

3) Provide a concise summary we can share with the CFO.

Expected outcome: a structured overview of your planning model in 30–60 minutes instead of days of manual documentation, and a clear list of weaknesses to fix before scaling AI-driven scenarios.

Use Claude to Generate a Scenario Library Aligned to Your Strategy

Instead of inventing scenarios ad-hoc, build a reusable scenario library with Claude. Provide your strategic plan, risk register, and market outlook reports, then ask Claude to propose a structured set of scenarios: macro cases, operational disruptions, strategic choices, and regulatory shocks.

For each scenario, have Claude define the narrative, affected drivers, and quantitative ranges (which you will later validate). This creates a repeatable catalogue that you can reuse every planning cycle and adjust as your strategy evolves.

Example prompt for building a scenario library:

You are an FP&A co-pilot helping us design a scenario library.

Input:
- Strategic plan deck (attached)
- Latest risk register (attached)
- Current base-case financial forecast (attached)

Tasks:
1) Propose 8–12 distinct scenarios grouped into:
   - Macro/market
   - Operational/supply
   - Strategic decisions
2) For each scenario, define:
   - 3–5 sentence narrative
   - Key financial drivers impacted (volume, price, mix, FX, headcount, capex, etc.)
   - Suggested quantitative ranges for each driver (we will validate)
3) Output in a structured table we can paste into Excel.

Expected outcome: a consistent, strategy-aligned scenario set that moves you beyond simplistic “+/-10% revenue” thinking.

Automate Scenario Documentation and Management Updates

One of Claude’s biggest wins is eliminating the PowerPoint treadmill. After Finance has run numbers in Excel or your planning system, use Claude to turn raw outputs into clear, narrative scenario summaries for management.

Export key tables (P&L, cash flow, KPIs) for each scenario and paste them into Claude with a short description of the assumptions. Ask Claude to highlight key differences vs. base case, quantify impact on critical metrics (EBIT, FCF, leverage), and phrase it in language your CEO and business leaders actually use.

Example prompt for management-ready scenario summaries:

You are helping the CFO prepare a scenario planning update for the executive team.

Input:
- Base case P&L and cash flow tables (FY+3 years)
- Two alternative scenarios with key assumptions

Tasks:
1) Summarise each scenario in max. 5 bullet points.
2) For each scenario, explain the financial impact vs. base case on:
   - Revenue
   - EBIT
   - Free cash flow
   - Net debt / EBITDA
3) Highlight top 3 risks and top 3 opportunities per scenario.
4) Propose one slide outline per scenario for our management deck.

Expected outcome: management-ready scenario narratives in under an hour, freeing finance capacity for deeper analysis.

Have Claude Run Sensitivity Analyses and Spot Hidden Exposures

Beyond discrete scenarios, use Claude to explore sensitivities and hidden exposures. Provide your base case plus several scenario outputs and ask Claude to identify which drivers the financials are most sensitive to and where downside risk is concentrated.

You can also ask Claude to propose additional stress cases that specifically test these sensitive drivers: for example, combining a modest volume drop with a specific cost increase to reflect more realistic risk clusters rather than extreme, unlikely shocks.

Example prompt for sensitivity analysis:

You are an FP&A analyst reviewing scenario outputs.

Input:
- Base case and 5 scenario outputs (P&L, cash flow, key driver values)

Tasks:
1) Identify which financial KPIs are most sensitive to changes in:
   - Volume, price, and mix
   - FX rates
   - Personnel costs
   - Capex
2) Rank the drivers by impact on EBIT and free cash flow.
3) Suggest 3 additional stress-test scenarios that combine the most impactful drivers
   in a realistic but adverse way.
4) Summarise findings for the CFO in one short paragraph.

Expected outcome: a clear view of which levers matter most, enabling targeted management attention and better risk conversations.

Standardise Prompts and Templates for the Finance Team

To make Claude part of your finance workflow, don’t rely on everyone inventing their own prompts every time. Create a set of standard prompt templates for recurring tasks: model mapping, scenario creation, management summaries, and risk analyses. Store them in your collaboration tools or finance playbook so they can be reused and improved.

Encourage team members to log which prompts work best and where Claude struggled, then refine templates centrally. Over time, this evolves into a tailored “AI handbook for FP&A” that reflects your specific business model, KPIs, and planning cadence.

Example standard prompt for recurring quarterly scenario updates:

Quarterly Scenario Refresh – Standard Prompt

Context:
- We update base case and scenarios every quarter.

Tasks for Claude:
1) Compare the new actuals and updated base case to last quarter's forecast.
2) Identify which assumptions behind our existing scenarios are now outdated.
3) Propose updated parameter ranges for affected drivers.
4) Suggest which scenarios to retire, keep, or add.
5) Draft a short note for business unit leaders explaining the key changes.

Expected outcome: faster, more consistent quarterly updates with less variation in quality between team members.

Connect Claude to Your Planning Stack Gradually

In the longer term, you may want to integrate Claude more tightly with your planning environment (Excel-based workflows, planning tools, or data warehouse). Start simple: use exports and structured CSVs that Claude can read, then progressively move to API-driven workflows where outputs are written back into templates or reporting layers.

Work with IT and security to define where Claude can access real data vs. anonymised extracts, and ensure compliance requirements are met. A clear integration roadmap prevents ad-hoc experiments from turning into shadow IT, while still letting your team experiment and learn quickly.

Expected outcomes when these best practices are implemented: finance teams can typically cut scenario preparation time by 30–50%, expand from 2–3 simplistic cases to 8–15 well-structured scenarios per cycle, and provide management with clearer, faster insight into risks and options. The result is not just efficiency, but materially better financial decisions.