The Challenge: Inaccurate Cash Flow Projections

Most finance teams still rely on cash flow projections that are stitched together from spreadsheets, rough DSO assumptions and static budget numbers. These forecasts rarely reflect real payment behavior, granular seasonality or detailed contract terms. As a result, even experienced teams are left managing liquidity with tools that are too slow, too coarse and too disconnected from live transactional data.

Traditional approaches were built for a world of stable demand and predictable payment patterns. A controller exports bookings from the ERP, aggregates receivables by ageing bucket, applies an average DSO and calls it a forecast. Budget owners send Excel files once a year, and any mid-year change quickly turns the model into a patchwork. Manual workarounds make it impossible to realistically integrate thousands of invoices, payment histories and contract clauses into one coherent view. Under volatility, this approach breaks down.

The business impact is significant. Underestimated outflows or overestimated inflows create surprise liquidity gaps that force last-minute funding at poor conditions. Overly conservative planning leads to idle cash and missed investment or discount opportunities. At group level, inaccurate cash flow projections limit the ability to manage working capital, negotiate better banking terms and plan strategic moves with confidence. Finance becomes a reporter of what happened instead of a driver of what should happen.

Yet this challenge is solvable. With the right data foundation and AI tooling, cash flow forecasting can move from static, assumption-driven spreadsheets to dynamic, driver-based planning that updates with every booking and payment. At Reruption, we’ve built AI-driven planning and analytics solutions that connect live data, scenario logic and business rules into usable tools for finance teams. The guidance below shows how you can use Gemini, together with Google Sheets and BigQuery, to turn cash flow projections into a reliable steering instrument.

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Our Assessment

A strategic assessment of the challenge and high-level tips how to tackle it.

From Reruption’s perspective, the most powerful way to attack inaccurate cash flow projections is to combine a solid data backbone in BigQuery with Gemini’s reasoning capabilities directly in Google Sheets. We’ve seen in multiple AI build-outs that the real leverage comes when finance can probe scenarios, adjust assumptions and interpret results themselves, instead of waiting for IT. Used correctly, Gemini for finance planning doesn’t replace your model – it continuously learns from historical patterns and external data to stress-test and enrich it.

Design Cash Flow Forecasting as a Dynamic System, Not a One-Off Model

Before touching Gemini, step back and reframe how your organisation thinks about cash flow forecasting. Instead of a yearly budgeting exercise, treat it as a living system that digests new invoices, payments and contracts every day. This mindset shift is crucial: a dynamic system can be improved and automated; a static spreadsheet will always stay brittle.

Use Gemini to support this system, not define it. Clearly articulate which inputs (ERP transactions, bank statements, CRM pipeline, contract data) should feed into BigQuery, which business rules drive timing (payment terms, approval flows, delivery milestones), and which outputs finance needs (13-week liquidity view, covenant headroom, currency exposure). With this architecture defined, Gemini can reason over well-structured data instead of compensating for a broken process.

Start with One High-Impact Cash Flow Use Case

A common mistake is trying to rebuild the entire planning universe with AI from day one. For Gemini in finance, identify a concrete, high-impact slice of cash flow where inaccuracies hurt you most: for example, customer collections in a key region, capex payment schedules, or subscription renewals.

Piloting Gemini on one use case lets finance, IT and data teams align on standards for data quality, access rights and validation without risking the full planning cycle. Once you see that Gemini can reliably predict actual vs. planned inflows for, say, your top 200 customers, it becomes much easier to extend the logic to other segments and maturities.

Make Finance the Product Owner, Not a Stakeholder

AI-driven financial planning fails when it is treated as an IT or data-science side project. To get real value from Gemini, appoint a finance product owner with decision power over forecasting logic, aggregation levels, and business rules. This person should be close enough to the numbers to understand nuances, and senior enough to challenge old planning habits.

Gemini’s tight integration with Google Sheets is ideal here: finance analysts can experiment with prompts, scenario definitions, and exception rules in a familiar interface. Data teams provide the BigQuery layer and governance, but finance owns how Gemini-generated forecasts are reviewed, approved and embedded into monthly cycles. This ownership is key for adoption and trust.

Invest Early in Data Quality and Traceability

AI will amplify whatever data you feed it. If your invoice data, payment history or contract terms are inconsistent, Gemini will surface that inconsistency in your cash flow projections. Strategically, it’s worth investing early in a minimal, but reliable, data model: unique IDs across ERP and bank data, clear mappings of customers and contracts, and explicit tables for payment terms and exceptions.

Equally important is traceability. Finance leaders need to be able to ask, “Why did Gemini project a delay in this inflow?” and get a clear answer. Structuring your BigQuery data so that Gemini can reference the underlying invoices, terms and historical delays builds the trust required for AI-assisted decisions, especially when liquidity is tight.

Define Governance for Scenarios, Not Just for Data

Many organisations focus governance on data access but ignore scenario governance. With Gemini, it becomes trivial for individuals to spin up optimistic or pessimistic scenarios. Without agreed guardrails, your organisation risks arguing over whose scenario is right instead of what to do.

Define a small set of “official” cash flow planning scenarios (e.g. base, downturn, upside) with clear rules on external drivers (FX, interest rates, sales pipeline conversion). Use Gemini to generate and document these scenarios in Sheets based on BigQuery inputs, and make sure finance leadership signs off on which scenarios are used for funding, investment and working capital decisions.

Used thoughtfully, Gemini for cash flow forecasting allows finance teams to move from static, DSO-based estimates to dynamic projections grounded in real transactions, behavior and contract terms. The key is to pair Gemini’s reasoning with a clean data backbone and clear ownership in finance. At Reruption, we specialise in building exactly these AI-first planning systems end-to-end, from BigQuery models to Gemini-powered Sheets frontends, and we’re happy to explore a focused proof of concept if you want to de-risk this step before scaling.

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Real-World Case Studies

From Banking to Fintech: Learn how companies successfully use Gemini.

bunq

Banking

As bunq experienced rapid growth as the second-largest neobank in Europe, scaling customer support became a critical challenge. With millions of users demanding personalized banking information on accounts, spending patterns, and financial advice on demand, the company faced pressure to deliver instant responses without proportionally expanding its human support teams, which would increase costs and slow operations. Traditional search functions in the app were insufficient for complex, contextual queries, leading to inefficiencies and user frustration. Additionally, ensuring data privacy and accuracy in a highly regulated fintech environment posed risks. bunq needed a solution that could handle nuanced conversations while complying with EU banking regulations, avoiding hallucinations common in early GenAI models, and integrating seamlessly without disrupting app performance. The goal was to offload routine inquiries, allowing human agents to focus on high-value issues.

Lösung

bunq addressed these challenges by developing Finn, a proprietary GenAI platform integrated directly into its mobile app, replacing the traditional search function with a conversational AI chatbot. After hiring over a dozen data specialists in the prior year, the team built Finn to query user-specific financial data securely, answer questions on balances, transactions, budgets, and even provide general advice while remembering conversation context across sessions. Launched as Europe's first AI-powered bank assistant in December 2023 following a beta, Finn evolved rapidly. By May 2024, it became fully conversational, enabling natural back-and-forth interactions. This retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) approach grounded responses in real-time user data, minimizing errors and enhancing personalization.

Ergebnisse

  • 100,000+ questions answered within months post-beta (end-2023)
  • 40% of user queries fully resolved autonomously by mid-2024
  • 35% of queries assisted, totaling 75% immediate support coverage
  • Hired 12+ data specialists pre-launch for data infrastructure
  • Second-largest neobank in Europe by user base (1M+ users)
Read case study →

H&M

Apparel Retail

In the fast-paced world of apparel retail, H&M faced intense pressure from rapidly shifting consumer trends and volatile demand. Traditional forecasting methods struggled to keep up, leading to frequent stockouts during peak seasons and massive overstock of unsold items, which contributed to high waste levels and tied up capital. Reports indicate H&M's inventory inefficiencies cost millions annually, with overproduction exacerbating environmental concerns in an industry notorious for excess. Compounding this, global supply chain disruptions and competition from agile rivals like Zara amplified the need for precise trend forecasting. H&M's legacy systems relied on historical sales data alone, missing real-time signals from social media and search trends, resulting in misallocated inventory across 5,000+ stores worldwide and suboptimal sell-through rates.

Lösung

H&M deployed AI-driven predictive analytics to transform its approach, integrating machine learning models that analyze vast datasets from social media, fashion blogs, search engines, and internal sales. These models predict emerging trends weeks in advance and optimize inventory allocation dynamically. The solution involved partnering with data platforms to scrape and process unstructured data, feeding it into custom ML algorithms for demand forecasting. This enabled automated restocking decisions, reducing human bias and accelerating response times from months to days.

Ergebnisse

  • 30% increase in profits from optimized inventory
  • 25% reduction in waste and overstock
  • 20% improvement in forecasting accuracy
  • 15-20% higher sell-through rates
  • 14% reduction in stockouts
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AstraZeneca

Healthcare

In the highly regulated pharmaceutical industry, AstraZeneca faced immense pressure to accelerate drug discovery and clinical trials, which traditionally take 10-15 years and cost billions, with low success rates of under 10%. Data silos, stringent compliance requirements (e.g., FDA regulations), and manual knowledge work hindered efficiency across R&D and business units. Researchers struggled with analyzing vast datasets from 3D imaging, literature reviews, and protocol drafting, leading to delays in bringing therapies to patients. Scaling AI was complicated by data privacy concerns, integration into legacy systems, and ensuring AI outputs were reliable in a high-stakes environment. Without rapid adoption, AstraZeneca risked falling behind competitors leveraging AI for faster innovation toward 2030 ambitions of novel medicines.

Lösung

AstraZeneca launched an enterprise-wide generative AI strategy, deploying ChatGPT Enterprise customized for pharma workflows. This included AI assistants for 3D molecular imaging analysis, automated clinical trial protocol drafting, and knowledge synthesis from scientific literature. They partnered with OpenAI for secure, scalable LLMs and invested in training: ~12,000 employees across R&D and functions completed GenAI programs by mid-2025. Infrastructure upgrades, like AMD Instinct MI300X GPUs, optimized model training. Governance frameworks ensured compliance, with human-in-loop validation for critical tasks. Rollout phased from pilots in 2023-2024 to full scaling in 2025, focusing on R&D acceleration via GenAI for molecule design and real-world evidence analysis.

Ergebnisse

  • ~12,000 employees trained on generative AI by mid-2025
  • 85-93% of staff reported productivity gains
  • 80% of medical writers found AI protocol drafts useful
  • Significant reduction in life sciences model training time via MI300X GPUs
  • High AI maturity ranking per IMD Index (top global)
  • GenAI enabling faster trial design and dose selection
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Tesla, Inc.

Automotive

The automotive industry faces a staggering 94% of traffic accidents attributed to human error, including distraction, fatigue, and poor judgment, resulting in over 1.3 million global road deaths annually. In the US alone, NHTSA data shows an average of one crash per 670,000 miles driven, highlighting the urgent need for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) to enhance safety and reduce fatalities. Tesla encountered specific hurdles in scaling vision-only autonomy, ditching radar and lidar for camera-based systems reliant on AI to mimic human perception. Challenges included variable AI performance in diverse conditions like fog, night, or construction zones, regulatory scrutiny over misleading Level 2 labeling despite Level 4-like demos, and ensuring robust driver monitoring to prevent over-reliance. Past incidents and studies criticized inconsistent computer vision reliability.

Lösung

Tesla's Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD) Supervised leverage end-to-end deep learning neural networks trained on billions of real-world miles, processing camera feeds for perception, prediction, and control without modular rules. Transitioning from HydraNet (multi-task learning for 30+ outputs) to pure end-to-end models, FSD v14 achieves door-to-door driving via video-based imitation learning. Overcoming challenges, Tesla scaled data collection from its fleet of 6M+ vehicles, using Dojo supercomputers for training on petabytes of video. Vision-only approach cuts costs vs. lidar rivals, with recent upgrades like new cameras addressing edge cases. Regulatory pushes target unsupervised FSD by end-2025, with China approval eyed for 2026.

Ergebnisse

  • Autopilot Crash Rate: 1 per 6.36M miles (Q3 2025)
  • Safety Multiple: 9x safer than US average (670K miles/crash)
  • Fleet Data: Billions of miles for training
  • FSD v14: Door-to-door autonomy achieved
  • Q2 2025: 1 crash per 6.69M miles
  • 2024 Q4 Record: 5.94M miles between accidents
Read case study →

Duolingo

EdTech

Duolingo, a leader in gamified language learning, faced key limitations in providing real-world conversational practice and in-depth feedback. While its bite-sized lessons built vocabulary and basics effectively, users craved immersive dialogues simulating everyday scenarios, which static exercises couldn't deliver . This gap hindered progression to fluency, as learners lacked opportunities for free-form speaking and nuanced grammar explanations without expensive human tutors. Additionally, content creation was a bottleneck. Human experts manually crafted lessons, slowing the rollout of new courses and languages amid rapid user growth. Scaling personalized experiences across 40+ languages demanded innovation to maintain engagement without proportional resource increases . These challenges risked user churn and limited monetization in a competitive EdTech market.

Lösung

Duolingo launched Duolingo Max in March 2023, a premium subscription powered by GPT-4, introducing Roleplay for dynamic conversations and Explain My Answer for contextual feedback . Roleplay simulates real-life interactions like ordering coffee or planning vacations with AI characters, adapting in real-time to user inputs. Explain My Answer provides detailed breakdowns of correct/incorrect responses, enhancing comprehension. Complementing this, Duolingo's Birdbrain LLM (fine-tuned on proprietary data) automates lesson generation, allowing experts to create content 10x faster . This hybrid human-AI approach ensured quality while scaling rapidly, integrated seamlessly into the app for all skill levels .

Ergebnisse

  • DAU Growth: +59% YoY to 34.1M (Q2 2024)
  • DAU Growth: +54% YoY to 31.4M (Q1 2024)
  • Revenue Growth: +41% YoY to $178.3M (Q2 2024)
  • Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 27.0% (Q2 2024)
  • Lesson Creation Speed: 10x faster with AI
  • User Self-Efficacy: Significant increase post-AI use (2025 study)
Read case study →

Best Practices

Successful implementations follow proven patterns. Have a look at our tactical advice to get started.

Connect BigQuery to Your Core Finance Systems and Normalize Payment Data

The tactical foundation for accurate cash flow projections with Gemini is a unified dataset in BigQuery. Start by streaming or batch-loading data from your ERP (invoices, credit notes, payment terms), your banking provider (actual cash movements), and optionally your CRM (pipeline and orders) into separate staging tables.

Create a normalized model that links invoices to customers, contracts and payments. For example, build a fact_invoice table with fields like invoice_id, due_date, amount, currency, payment_terms, customer_id, and a fact_payment table capturing actual value dates. Then define a view that calculates historical days to pay per customer, product line or region. This structure is what you will later expose to Google Sheets and Gemini.

Use Gemini in Google Sheets to Build a Behavior-Based Inflow Model

Once your BigQuery model is in place, use the native Google Sheets – BigQuery connector to pull in the relevant views (e.g. invoice history, payment behaviour statistics). Then, leverage Gemini inside Sheets to turn this into a behavior-based inflow forecast per customer or segment.

For instance, you can paste a subset of invoice and payment history into a sheet and prompt Gemini to classify customers by payment behavior and create projection rules. A sample prompt:

You are assisting with cash flow forecasting.

1. You receive a table with the following columns:
   - customer_id
   - invoice_date
   - due_date
   - invoice_amount
   - payment_date (may be empty for open invoices)

2. Tasks:
   - Calculate historical days-to-pay for each customer.
   - Group customers into 3 behaviour segments: early, on-time, late.
   - For open invoices, predict expected payment date based on segment, seasonality
     and any visible patterns.
   - Return a new table with expected_payment_date and probability of delay (>14 days).

Output the result as a clean table that I can paste back into this sheet.

Review and validate the output for a sample of high-value customers, then gradually automate this by embedding Gemini prompts and formulas into your Sheets templates.

Automate 13-Week Cash Flow Views with Gemini-Assisted Formulas

Short-term liquidity steering lives and dies by the 13-week view. In Google Sheets, set up a calendar grid for the next 13 weeks as columns, and use formulas to allocate projected inflows and outflows to weeks based on expected payment dates and schedule information from BigQuery.

Use Gemini to generate and refine these allocation formulas. For example, highlight your data structure and ask Gemini:

You are helping to build a 13-week cash flow model in Google Sheets.

The sheet has:
- Column A: cashflow_item_id
- Column B: type (inflow/outflow)
- Column C: expected_date
- Column D: amount
- Columns F:R: calendar weeks (dates in row 1)

Write a formula that, for each row, allocates the amount to the correct week column
based on expected_date, with inflows as positive, outflows as negative.
Use only standard Google Sheets formulas and reference row 2 as the first data row.

Gemini can propose and explain formulas using INDEX, MATCH and IF logic, which you then standardise across your planning templates. The result is an automated 13-week cash flow that updates when new data flows into BigQuery and is refreshed in Sheets.

Use Gemini to Stress-Test Assumptions and Build What-If Scenarios

Beyond baseline forecasts, use Gemini for scenario analysis on your cash flow model. In a dedicated “Assumptions” sheet, define drivers such as DSO shift by segment, collection improvement initiatives, FX rates, or changes in supplier terms. Link these to your formulas so that changing an assumption recalculates the 13-week view.

Then, ask Gemini to generate what-if configurations and interpret the impact. Example prompt:

You are a financial planning assistant.

We have a 13-week cash flow model in this spreadsheet.
Assumptions are listed in the 'Assumptions' tab:
- dso_shift_days
- collection_improvement_pct
- fx_rate_eur_usd

1. Propose 3 scenarios (base, downside, upside) with concrete values for
   these assumptions, consistent with recent history in the data.
2. For each scenario, calculate and summarize:
   - Minimum weekly cash balance
   - Maximum weekly funding need
   - Main drivers compared to base case

Return your answer as:
- A small table of assumptions per scenario
- A short textual interpretation for finance management.

Copy the suggested assumptions into your model, run the recalculation, and use Gemini’s interpretation as a starting point for management discussion.

Flag Anomalies and High-Risk Items in Receivables and Payables

Gemini is also effective as an anomaly detector on top of your BigQuery data. In Sheets, bring in a list of open items with fields such as customer, amount, days overdue, usual days-to-pay and contact history. Use Gemini to flag high-risk receivables that are likely to slip beyond their predicted payment date, or payables with unusual patterns.

For example:

You are analysing open receivables to improve cash flow forecasting.

You receive a table with:
- customer_id
- invoice_id
- amount
- due_date
- predicted_payment_date
- current_date
- usual_days_to_pay_customer

1. Highlight invoices that are likely to be paid later than
   predicted_payment_date.
2. Use patterns in historical behaviour, amount, and timing.
3. Mark each invoice as 'ok', 'watch', or 'high risk' and explain why.
4. Suggest concrete collection actions for 'high risk' items.

Return a table with an additional 'risk_flag' and 'action_recommendation' column.

Feed these flags back into your cash flow views to adjust expected dates and to coordinate collections with sales and operations.

Document the Logic and Controls Directly in the Sheet with Gemini

To ensure reliability and auditability, document your model logic where it lives – in Google Sheets. Use Gemini to generate clear explanations for complex formulas, data mappings and assumptions that finance and audit teams can understand without diving into the technical implementation.

Select a cell with a complex formula or an assumptions range and prompt Gemini to explain and document it in plain language. For example:

You are documenting a cash flow model for internal controls.

1. Read the formula in cell H2 and the surrounding cells.
2. Explain in simple finance language what this formula does and how
   it impacts the 13-week cash flow forecast.
3. List any implicit assumptions and potential failure points
   (e.g., missing dates, wrong sign for outflows).
4. Write the explanation as a short documentation note that can be
   pasted into a 'Model Documentation' sheet.

This practice creates living documentation as the model evolves, reducing key-person risk and making it easier to onboard new team members or satisfy auditors.

Implemented step by step, these practices typically lead to more stable and transparent cash flow forecasting. In our experience, finance teams can often cut manual forecasting effort by 30–50%, reduce forecast error for the next 4–8 weeks by 20–40%, and gain earlier visibility into liquidity gaps, enabling more proactive working capital and funding decisions.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Gemini improves cash flow forecast accuracy by learning from your real transaction history instead of relying on a single DSO assumption. Connected to BigQuery and Google Sheets, it can recognise patterns in when specific customers, regions or product lines actually pay, how seasonality affects inflows, and how contract terms translate into cash movements.

Practically, Gemini helps you predict expected payment dates per invoice or customer, stress-test your assumptions, and continuously update the forecast as new bookings and payments come in. The result is a projection that reflects how your business behaves in reality, not how a static model assumed it would behave at budget time.

You typically need three capabilities: a finance owner who understands your current cash flow planning and business drivers, a data engineer or BI specialist to set up BigQuery models and data pipelines, and someone familiar with Google Sheets to build the planning templates. Deep AI expertise is helpful but not mandatory – Gemini’s interface in Sheets is designed for business users.

Many teams start with existing BI resources and one motivated controller. Reruption can complement your internal skills with our AI engineering team and our Co-Preneur approach, so that your finance function doesn’t have to become an AI lab to get value quickly.

Timelines depend on your data landscape, but in most organisations we see useful results within a few weeks if the scope is focused. A typical path is: 1–2 weeks to connect core tables from ERP and banking to BigQuery, 1 week to build a first 13-week cash flow view in Sheets, and another 1–2 weeks to integrate Gemini for behaviour-based predictions and scenario analysis.

You don’t need a perfect data warehouse to start. By scoping to a subset of customers or regions, you can validate the Gemini cash flow forecasting approach quickly, measure forecast error improvements, and then extend the model to the rest of the business.

The direct costs of Gemini itself are typically modest compared to the value of better liquidity steering. The main investment is in setting up the BigQuery data model, Sheets templates and workflows. ROI comes from several sources: lower manual effort in forecasting, fewer surprise liquidity gaps (and therefore better funding conditions), better utilisation of idle cash, and more informed decisions on payment terms and collection priorities.

Finance leaders often see value when they can reduce forecast error for the next 4–8 weeks by even 10–20%, or when earlier visibility of a funding gap allows renegotiation with banks instead of last-minute, expensive credit. We recommend defining specific KPIs (forecast accuracy, manual hours saved, working capital improvements) before starting, so you can quantify ROI over the first 3–6 months.

Reruption supports companies end-to-end in building AI-powered finance solutions. With our 9.900€ AI PoC offering, we can quickly validate whether a Gemini-based cash flow forecasting model is technically feasible on your data: we scope the use case, design the BigQuery model, build a working prototype in Google Sheets with Gemini, and measure performance and forecast accuracy.

Beyond the PoC, our Co-Preneur approach means we work inside your organisation like a co-founder team: embedding with finance, IT and data teams, hardening the prototype, addressing security and compliance, and turning it into a robust planning tool that runs on your existing P&L. We don’t optimise your old spreadsheets – we help you build the AI-first cash flow planning system that will replace them.

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